That all too familiar sense of dread that overtakes me each spring has returned, and that can only mean one thing: the Seattle Mariners’ regular season is almost upon us.
They say that Opening Day is great, because, at the start of it at least, everyone is equal; we’re all undefeated! For this reason, it is often my happiest day in a given Mariner season. But it’s a day that still comes with a handful of questions, and this year is no different.
Who is the fifth starter? Who will be the utility infielder? Are there enough healthy relievers in camp with which to assemble an entire bullpen? I don’t have the answers to any of these questions, but that’s never stopped me before!!
The Rotation
Who’s In?
Felix Hernandez-R/Hisashi Iwakuma-R/Wade Miley-L/Taijuan Walker-R
Just as with the Democratic presidential nomination, the competition for the Mariners’ fifth starter gig is a two person race. But unlike the Democratic presidential race, this one is actually a legitimate tossup with two equally deserving candidates (that’s right, I fuckin’ said it; Hillary or bust, motherfuckers…do not make me start singing “Cult of Personality”). So will it be Nate Karns or James Paxton?
Normally these things work themselves out, because somebody gets hurt. And considering that Paxton is about as injury-prone as they come (excepting the remarkably injurrific tandem of Danny Hultzen and Franklin Gutierrez), it’s a bit of a surprise that he’s still in one piece.
For three reasons of varying importance, I think Karns is gonna get the duke. First, the M’s had to part with a pretty decent young hitter in Brad Miller to acquire Karns, so it stands to reason they placed a higher value on him than that of a Triple-A starter.
Moreover, while the M’s want Paxton to log a good amount of innings following two injury-shortened seasons, they probably don’t want to have to depend on his delicate ass too heavily. Allowing him, for at least part of the year, to not be obligated to put up half a dozen innings every fifth day might not be the worst thing in the world.
Finally, and most importantly, Karns has just looked better, striking out more batters, while posting a lower WHIP and much lower ERA. In short, he appears to offer a considerably higher level of consistency and dependability at this point.
Having said all that, Paxton, who has flashed potential near-front-of-the-rotation stuff, probably has a higher ceiling, so really this is anyone’s guess.
All things considered, the rotation looks to be at least a modest strength for the M’s. Felix and Kuma comprise a pretty solid 1-2 punch, and if Walker takes the next step in his development, this could be one of the best rotations in the league.
The Bullpen
Who’s In?
Uh….Steve Cishek-R/Joaquin Benoit-R/Vidal Nuno-L
Most years, I wouldn’t be sure about Nuno, but since Charlie Furbush is a longshot to be ready for Opening Day and there needs to be at least one goddamn lefty in the ‘pen, I’d say that Nuno can pretty comfortably plan to be in Seattle come April.
Owing again primarily to attrition, it’s highly probable that righty Tony Zych and southpaw Mike Montgomery (who is out of minor league options) will make the team to start the season. So that’s five of seven spots. Who gets the other two? I have no fucking idea.
What, you want me to guess? Oh, I suppose it might be…er, let’s see here…..Blake Parker! The righty has looked reasonably good this spring, and he has a pretty sweet beard, so I think I’ll go with him.
As for the final spot, I’m not yet convinced that anyone presently on the roster will get the nod. At least I hope not, because this group is pretty underwhelming. I’m hoping that some semi-dependable reliever will be cut loose by another club and then join the M’s. Time will tell.
On paper, the bullpen staff appears most likely to torpedo the season, though it’s hard to place too much blame on new GM Jerry Dipoto for this situation. Owing to roster-wide weaknesses, Dipoto was more or less forced to trade Tom Wilhelmsen and Danny Farquhar to add depth elsewhere.
Losing Carson Smith was a huge blow, and could prove to be a significant regret, but it make some sense at the time, because Iwakuma appeared headed to LA before injury concerns nixed the deal. This made the need for another starter (Miley from Boston) rather dire. Had Dipoto known he’d “reacquire” Kuma, perhaps he doesn’t make this deal, but how could he have possibly anticipated that?
Nevertheless, when your most dependable reliever is a 38-year-old setup man, there’s cause for alarm. Only than crossing our fingers, there’s really not much we can do about this now.
Catcher
Who’s In?
Chris Iannetta
With broken former third overall pick Mike Zunino attempting to fix himself down in Tacoma, the backup catcher gig will come down to a choice between two left-handed hitters; Steve Clevenger and recently acquired Rob Brantly. Both have looked fine this spring, but Clevenger has a bit more experience and can man first base in a pinch. My guess is that unless Brantly just tears the cover off the ball in the next ten days or so, Clevenger will be the guy.
Infield
Who’s In?
Adam Lind-1B/Robinson Cano-2B/Kyle Seager-3B/Ketel Marte-SS
Alright, so the starters are set, but the backups will be of great importance. Lind is comically bad against left-handed pitching, so a righty platoon-ish option is more or less necessary. It looked like it would be Jesus Montero‘s job to lose, but…well, he may have lost it. Korean slugger Dae-Ho Lee has impressed this spring and, since he can opt of of his deal should he not make the club, I assume he’ll stay and Montero will be kicked to the curb.
Of perhaps equal importance will be the utility infielder. Chris Taylor has been given several looks over the past couple seasons, and let’s just say he’s failed to impress at the plate. Shawn O’Malley looked nice in a September audition last season and has had a terrific spring. He can also play the outfield somewhat capably, so that works in his favor as well. But while he’s played second and third, he hasn’t played any shortstop in the bigs. This is a bit of a strike against him, because Marte figures to be given more days off than either Cano or Seager.
As such, a capable shortstop is close to compulsory. This favors Luis Sardinas, who handles the glove pretty well at short, third and second. I suppose he’s my pick, though I’m sort of rooting for O’Malley.
Outfield
Who’s In? Well, almost everybody.
This group is pretty well settled. On most days, we’re likely to see Nori Aoki in left, Leonys Martin in center and either Seth Smith or Franklin Gutierrez in right, while Nelson Cruz will get some time in right as well when he isn’t DH’ing.
The one wrinkle in this plan is that the club is hoping the rather brittle Guti can spell Martin in center against tough lefties. That poses a bit of a problem, because Guti isn’t the athlete he once was, and preserving his suddenly potent bat should be a higher priority than squeezing innings out of him at a more physically demanding position.
If O’Malley makes the club as the backup infielder, these concerns are more or less erased, because he’s capable of playing center as well. (Hey, like I said, I’m pulling for the guy.)
In Conclusion:
Look, frankly I’m sick of trying to figure this fucking team out. Just when I expect them to take that next step (2010 and last season come immediately to mind), they have a tendency to wildly disappoint.
I will say that Dipoto seems more adept as roster construction than his predecessor, whose philosophy seemed to change by the year (On-base guys! No, wait- right-handed power bats! Hey, I wonder if Rickie Weeks can play the outfield….). So, if nothing else, there’s a chance for a pretty good season of Mariners’ baseball.
Let’s hope so anyway, because if they fall on their faces, it may trigger yet another rebuild and, by extension, good seasons will be in short supply for quite some time.
No Balls And Three Strikes 