If There’s One Thing I Don’t Believe In….It’s You

Through the first two games of the 2016 season, the Seattle Seahawks look awful. 

 

The running game has yet to get going, the offensive line looks every bit like the lowest paid position group in the NFL that it is, and that legendary defense hasn’t been able to create a single turnover. Oh, and don’t even get me started on the offense’s continued inability to do a goddamn thing in the first half of games.

So yeah. Not the greatest start to the season. But this is the Seahawks, and while nothing is guaranteed, no one would be the least bit surprised to see them get their shit together and get a nice roll started. They could very well win their division or, failing that, get into the playoffs as a wildcard team. Not only do I believe this is possible; I kind of expect it.

As anyone who knows me has long since surmised, I’m not an optimist. The only reason I have these expectations is because the Seahawks of Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson and the LOB have proven to be a resilient unit that can overcome poor starts, both in a season or in a given game. They’ve earned the right to be believed in.

Which brings me to the “other” professional sports franchise in town, the Seattle Mariners…..

As of this moment, the M’s sit just three games out of the final wildcard spot in the American League. And with their next two games against a team that currently occupies that spot, they could find themselves just a game out by tomorrow evening.

So I must be pretty excited, right? Nah, not really. Because the M’s will almost certainly fail to reach the postseason.

Unlike their SoDo neighbors, the Mariners haven’t earned the right to my faith or yours. If anything, they deserve our skepticism, because, in many ways, they’ve spent the better part of the 21st century as Major League Baseball’s single biggest disappointment.

The M’s possess a number of troublesome flaws, but the biggest in one has been readily apparent from the start: a lack of depth.

Our 3-5 hitters, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, have all had excellent seasons. But the rest of the lineup ranges from inconsistent to flat out incompetent.

Here’s an example: The last place Angels have Albert Pujols batting an unspectacular .266. But he’s driven in 112 runs. Meanwhile, Cano is batting .293 and has twenty-five less RBI to show for it. How can this be? It’s simple, really. Pujols has Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun hitting in front of him; Cano’s got some combination of Nori Aoki, Franklin Gutierrez, Seth Smith, Shawn O’Malley and Guillermo Heredia in front of him. Hard to drive in runs when there’s nobody on base.

(While we’re on the subject, I find it to be fucking moronic that Seager, arguably the team’s best hitter, bats fifth. How many dozens of at bats that could have gone to Seager have instead gone to the likes of Smith or Gutierrez? I understand the thinking of hitting him fifth; I just think there are far better reasons to slot him second, given the lack of useful bats.)

Aside from the heart of the order, the Mariners essentially trot out replacement-level players to fill out their lineup. You’re gonna need a hell of a lot of luck to overcome that, and, for the most part, “luck” and “Mariners” have proven to be mutually exclusive.

But oh, if only that lack of depth were restricted to the Mariner offense! On the contrary, the pitching staff suffers the same ills. A rash of injuries to starters and relievers alike had the M’s spread far too thin for much of the season. And even now, with nearly everyone back on the field, inconsistency rules.

Last week, Taijuan Walker pitched the greatest game of his career. Last night, we was back to looking like a mediocre spot starter, lasting just 5.1 innings while surrendering five hits and four walks. And let’s not mince words: longtime ace Felix Hernandez is no longer an elite talent. Even on his good days, he looks a bit off. And there haven’t been too many good days. Sorry, but when Ariel Miranda is your most consistent starter, that doesn’t bode well for postseason aspirations.

I don’t mean to say that I’m disappointed in the 2016 Mariners. Disappointment requires (here we go again) at least mildly high expectations. The M’s are more or less what I thought they’d be, if not a little bit better. Some individual performances have been better or worse than what I may have expected, but as a whole, this slightly above .500 team is on the higher end of what I imagined possible.

But what I’m not willing to do is have faith in an entity that has done nothing to warrant said faith. If the Hawks continue to struggle and begin the year 4-4, I may hold out some hope that, even facing an imposing remaining schedule, they can right the ship. But the Mariners? Well, if they win their next ten games, maybe then we can talk. No? Didn’t think so.

 

Looking Forward

This is intended to be a piece about roster construction for the 2017 Seattle Mariners season. But that doesn’t mean I’m throwing in the towel on 2016. 

 

The M’s are currently two and a half games back in the wildcard race; hardly an insurmountable deficit. And while, if I were a betting man, I’d wager they’re gonna fall short, it’d be crazy for me to be convinced of that. The playoffs are a possibility.

That being said, even the casual follower will likely notice that the Mariners have some pretty significant weaknesses.

The pitching side of things is a little difficult to assess, because much of the problems there have involved a rash of injuries. The offense, on the other hand, has stayed mostly healthy, so it’s much clearer what’s working and what isn’t.

Barring unforeseen events, the core of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz will be welcomed back with open arms. It’s also a foregone conclusion that Leonys Martin and Ketel Marte will be back in the mix. Martin has provided a stabilizing defensive presence in center, and though Marte has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, there’s no point in giving up on him. Shawn O’Malley has proven to be a valuable utility player, so he’s likely to return. And, barring a staggering September collapse, catcher Mike Zunino has earned another opportunity next season.

As for everyone else….well, let’s just say they won’t necessarily be missed. Of the major remaining position players, I would consider one guy to be on the bubble, whereas the rest ought to be kicked to the fucking curb.

Let’s start with the bubble boy…..

 

Seth Smith- “OF” 

Smith’s contract has a $7 million club option for the 2017 season. But even in a poor free agent class, that money might be better spent elsewhere.

First off, Smith’s outfield defense is fucking atrocious. So much so that even his reasonably strong offensive numbers against right-handed pitching become somewhat irrelevant.

Smith’s .270/.358/.424 slash against righties would only have value to me going forward if he’s given a hell of a lot more time at DH. For whatever reason, the M’s like to give Cruz a healthy amount of starts in right field, so if Smith can DH more often than he plays the field, I’d consider his $7 million salary to be a worthwhile gamble.

But so far, that hasn’t happened. Smith has appeared in 73 games as an outfielder, and just 13 as a DH. Those numbers need to be more or less equal in order for him to be worth even half of his potential 2017 salary. If that’s not feasible….see ya later, Seth.

 

And now for the “get the fuck out” crew…..

 

Franklin Gutierrez- OF 

Let me first say that I’ll always feel sorry for Guti. Before illness and injury derailed him, he was a Gold Glove-winning CF who could hit and run reasonably well. Unfortunately none of those skills remain. And though he brought some good production last season against lefties, he hasn’t even done that particularly well this year.

Actually, Guti hasn’t been a productive hitter since June, batting .189 in July and .182 in August. Now that his defense is, at best, adequate, anything short of absolutely mashing lefties is unacceptable. And he just hasn’t been doing that.

I wouldn;t even wait until the winter to cut him loose. If he were designated for assignment tomorrow, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.

 

Nori Aoki- OF

Speaking of shitty outfielders…..

To be fair, Aoki has been hitting the ball very well since being recalled from Tacoma. But he’s still a defensively-challenged singles hitter who is useless against left-handed pitching. The impossibly stupid route he took to a fly ball on Sunday more or less doomed the M’s to a shocking loss to the Brewers, and that just can’t happen.

Oh, and then there’s his base-running. Ol’ Nori does lead the league in one category, but it’s probably not one he’s pleased about- times caught stealing. That’s a fine thing to lead the league in if you’re Rickey Henderson and you’re stealing four to six bags a week. But Aoki has successfully stolen six times, against nine caught stealing. That’s atrocious.

Finally, even after a torrid August, Aoki is still batting about 20 points below his career mark. In short, he’s underachieved in every way imaginable.

 

Adam Lind- 1B

Forget that he’s come up with a few clutch hits. There’s no way to sugarcoat this- Lind is having, if not the worst year of his career, then damn close. In fact, Lind is currently sporting a -0.1 WAR for the season, so in theory, the M’s could have signed someone off the waiver wire, payed him the league minimum, and done just as well for themselves. Even though the M’s have no other answers at first base (more on that in a moment), I would hope they’d make no effort whatsoever to sign Lind to an extension.

 

Dae-Ho Lee- 1B

While Lee produced pretty well for a couple of months there, he fell off in a hurry and was demoted to Triple-A, where he still resides. If he decided to re-sign for practically nothing, I guess I could see the M’s giving him another year to maybe share first base duties. But beyond that, well, let’s just say it was nice while it lasted.

(Complicating matters though is the lack of options beyond Lee and Lind. Former first round pick DJ Peterson is a huge question mark. He’s 24 years old and struggling to bat .250 in perhaps the most hitter-friendly league in professional baseball. Recent trade acquisition Dan Vogelbach‘s defense is so suspect that he probably would be best utilized as a DH, so handing the reins to him is probably also a gamble.)

 

Chris Iannetta- C

Fuck, I don’t know. If he doesn’t mind potentially being Zunino’s backup….sure, pick up his option if you want to.

 

Yeah, so it’s pretty obvious that the areas most in need of an overhaul are first base and the corner outfield spots. Not exactly easy to find good replacements in those areas, but given the circumstances, the Mariners don’t really have a choice. A shortstop to compete with Marte would be nice too, but as a Mariners fan, I’ve learned not to expect too much, so….

 

The Mets and Their Magical Midmarket Metropolis

In the summer of 2008, the Seattle SuperSonics, our city’s longest-tenured professional sports franchise, headed east to that bustling metropolis of Oklahoma City. 

 

After footing much of the bill for new state of the art stadiums for our NFL and MLB teams, Seattle wasn’t really in the mood to say yes to yet another publicly-funded venue for billionaire owners. Long story short, the owners wanted out, and NBA commissioner David Stern made no effort whatsoever to prevent a relocation.

(It didn’t help matters that the Seattle City Council, whose members are the kinds of assholes we all know who like to mock our enthusiasm for sports with barbs like, “Ooh, sportsball!, flatly stated that they felt a basketball team added nothing of cultural relevance to the Emerald City.) 

A few years later, the Sacramento Kings were for sale, and were unable to procure funding for a needed new arena. For a time, it looked better than 50/50 that the Kings would be purchased by Chris Hansen, who intended to move the club north and rechristen them the Sonics. But it never happened, because by this time, apparently Stern had decided that a city losing its team was simply unacceptable. The Kings were sold at a lower price to someone who kept them in Sacramento, and that was that.

In subsequent years, there were whispers that other teams in Milwaukee or New Orleans could move to Seattle, but again, Stern and the NBA weren’t having it. Apparently the Sonics leaving Seattle was the last time the NBA would ever say fuck it to keeping a team in its home town.

It’s anyone’s guess when the city of Seattle will get its Sonics back, but my personal estimate is probably a minimum of eight to ten years; probably longer.

So why the devil am I telling you this in a baseball blog? Mostly because something not altogether different happened in Major League Baseball which involved the team I grew up rooting for.

In 2012, then-MLB dictator Bud Selig essentially held a gun to Los Angeles Dodgers’ owner Frank McCourt’s head and forced him into selling the club. This might seem wildly unfair, but I don’t think it was. McCourt was basically using his ownership of one of MLB’s most celebrated franchises as an enormous piggy-bank to pay for his high profile divorce. So instead of spending money to make the Dodgers competitive, that cash was going to decidedly non baseball-related pursuits.

Selig and the other owners found this unacceptable, and the Dodgers were eventually sold to Guggenheim Baseball Management LLC for about two billion dollars. Since then, the Dodgers have had one of, if not the highest team payroll in baseball. They’ve also made the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. Pretty good deal for Dodger fans, no?

If only fans of the New York Mets were so lucky.

You might have heard some years back that Mets majority owner Fred Wilpon was tangled up in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme that bilked investors out of billions of dollars. Wilpon initially claimed to have lost a lot of cash, but it turned out he was full of shit, and probably profited handsomely. He ended up having to pay $162 million to defrauded investors and as a result, the Mets were essentially fucked financially.

Since MLB put their foot down at this exact same time in the case of the Dodgers, you would think that they’d have forced Wilpon into a sale. After all, a team playing in the nation’s largest media market ought to spend like one. But that never happened, almost certainly because Wilpon had a far better and longer relationship with Selig than McCourt did. And while Wilpon did sell off 48% of the interest in the Mets, he was able to retain majority ownership.

This is bad for a couple of different reasons. For one, it showed blatant favoritism to Wilpon, while sticking it to the fans of the club he owned. While the Dodgers have been able to assemble a world-beating roster at more than a quarter billion dollars per season, the Mets are spending like they play in motherfucking Milwaukee.

Alright, that’s a slight exaggeration: the Brew Crew’s current payroll is quite a bit lower than the Mets’. But before the recent acquisitions of Jay Bruce and Jon Niese, the team payroll sat at about $128 million, which was only slightly higher than the payrolls of the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves.

This is significant not only because Atlanta, and especially San Diego, are much smaller markets, but because both the Friars and the Braves are in full on “fuck it, let’s get rid of everybody” mode. The Mets, meanwhile, are the defending National League champions.

I acknowledge that the Amazins have recently managed to succeed despite financial limitations.  But it would be a hell of a lot easier to continue that trajectory if they spent like their market dictates they should.

Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that a financially-healthy Mets franchise spent another $40-45 million on payroll, which would put them about halfway toward what the Yankees are spending. That’s the kind of money that would have brought free agent Daniel Murphy back with enough left over to woo either Alex Gordon or Jason Heyward to both solidify the lineup and improve outfield defense substantially. And they would have had money to spare.

Instead, the Mets opted to, ah, enhance their roster on the cheap, acquiring Neil Walker to play second and Alejandro de Aza to be an extra outfielder, while re-signing Yoenis Cespedes to a deal he can opt out of this winter. Or they could have thrown some money at a high end reliever or two to enhance what is, at best, a middle of the road bullpen.

To be fair, both Heyward and Gordon are having terrible years (though Heyward is still playing stellar defense). But Murphy is having an MVP-type season, leading the league in batting average, hits, doubles and OPS….for the Mets’ chief rival in the NL East. He’s been so good at the plate, he’s even overcome his god-awful defense enough to post a very strong 4.1 WAR. Pretty great production from a guy signed to a three year, $37.5 million deal that was apparently too rich for a team that plays in goddamn New York to match. Good job, guys.

An interesting side note: Murph almost single-handedly propelled the Mets to the World Series last year, earning the NLCS Most Valuable Player award in a race that was about as close as Johnson versus Goldwater.

If Mets fans didn’t already know that Murphy was a goner beforehand, they should have known once he got that trophy. The last Met to win a postseason MVP was pitcher Mike Hampton, who would go on to sign a mammoth contract with the Rockies. Before that it was Ray Knight, the 1986 World Series MVP. He was also a free agent that winter and the club (somewhat understandably) made no effort whatsoever to retain him.

The ’86 NLCS MVP wasn’t a Met at all, but rather that cheating bastard Mike Scott from the losing Astros. When the club won pennants in 1969 and 1973, there were no LCS MVP’s. The last- and only- Met to win a playoff award and still be on the team the following season was 1969 World Series MVP Donn Clendenon. Which is why I suspect that when a Met wins such an award, the trophy is accompanied by a certificate that says, “Thank You for Your Service. Now Get the Fuck Out.” 

The point it, merely by fielding a team that a New York-based franchise should be able to afford, the Mets could be well positioned for another deep playoff run, instead of desperately trying for a wildcard spot.

As a team, they have a .238 batting average, dead last in the game. And these offensive struggles are nothing new; they ranked 28th last season at .244, and that was after an impressive final two months of the season! In fact, they’ve been among the bottom three offensive teams in baseball for each of the past four seasons. Which is to say these problems should have been addressed a long time ago. Such a perpetually shitty offense might be acceptable for the Tampa Bay Rays, who play in a toilet that nobody visits, but for the Mets, it isn’t.

Actually, I misspoke. Apparently it is acceptable. But it shouldn’t be.

As I said, despite operating on a fixed income, the Mets have done well recently. It helps that they have an excellent assortment of young pitchers who haven’t yet racked up the requisite service time to warrant large salaries. But what happens when that starts to change?

Matt Harvey is eligible for arbitration next year and can become a free agent two years after that. Both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are arbitration eligible in 2018. Provided Harvey can bounce back from surgery and the other two are still playing at elite levels, the Mets would probably be looking at more than $70 million per year in salary to retain that trio, even before they reach free agency.

That shouldn’t be impossible to swing for a franchise that plays its home games in New York City. But I can’t believe for even one moment that the Mets will make such a commitment as log as Wilpon owns the club. More likely, one or more of those guys will be traded or allowed to depart via free agency.

I had to watch as the Mets of the mid to late ’80’s allowed a dynasty slip through their fingers due to personal excesses and a few questionable transactions. That team should have been a postseason mainstay for another five years and perpetually competed for championships. Instead they made just one other playoff appearance, being dispatched in seven games in the 1988 NLCS by the Los Angeles Orel Hershisers.

I’m every bit as worried now. As far as I know, there are no raging coke-heads on the 2016 Mets. But that same dread- that external factors are going to compromise what should be a juggernaut for the next five or six years- persists.

When a club has this much cost-controlled pitching talent under one roof, simply winning one pennant would be a spectacular underachievement. But since MLB decided to hold Wilpon to a lower standard than McCourt, I fear that’s not only a very real possibility, but perhaps a good likelihood.

Prove me wrong, Wilpon. For the love of God, prove me wrong.

 

 

 

A Realistic Approach to the Trade Deadline

It would appear that my Mad King approach to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline will not be heeded by Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto. 

 

I’m actually relieved (future pun intended). Even if it ends up biting us in the ass down the line, I had little interest in watching a bunch of nobodies lose 100 games the next couple years. I’ve seen quite enough of that already.

Plans could certainly change if the M’s, say, go out and lose ten of their next twelve games. But for now, the approach appears to involve making modest additions to the team’s core rather than blowing it all up.

If you followed the Mariners over the winter, this is nothing new- Dipoto likes to make deals. For this reason, I would put the odds of Seattle standing pat at the deadline at just above zero percent.

It has to be noted yet again that the Mariners have one of the poorer minor league systems in the game, so it’s difficult to believe that pricey studs like Ryan Braun or Andrew Miller will be relocating to the Emerald City in the coming weeks. But that doesn’t mean that significant additions aren’t possible.

With Felix Hernadez set to return soon (and hopefully Taijuan Walker to follow shortly thereafter), the M’s may not have a desperate need for another starter. But their bullpen, despite early season success, is in serious need of an upgrade. Ideally the club would pick up a new closer, because while Steve Cishek has been adequate, he is absolutely not the guy you want to turn to in the ninth inning of a playoff game. (Yes, I know I’m getting ahead of myself here, but I’m trying this positively business.)

The club has four, maybe five guys currently active who I would deem somewhat valuable relievers. So really, adding two arms should be the priority, with at least one of them being a setup man or closer. As long as we’re asking, the second guy should probably be a lefty.

Again, the M’s don’t have a lot to offer, though guys on the big league roster like Adam Lind or Franklin Gutierrez might net a decent reliever from a team in need of a bat. (If I’m an NL GM for a playoff contender, for instance, I’d be willing to part with an arm if I could add Guti to a club that might have to face Clayton Kershaw two or three times in a postseason series.)

Of course, the kinds of teams that would look to acquire a Lind or a Guti would be contenders, meaning they’d be exceedingly unlikely to jettison a valuable reliever unless they had a massive surplus of arms. I can’t really think of too many teams who fit that profile.

And then there’s that other option- sending off one or two of our few valuable prospects for instant returns. 2013 1st round pick DJ Peterson seems to have finally found himself, and could be coveted by a club seeking a young, cost-controlled corner infielder. Ditto outfielder Alex Jackson, who has been making some progress at age 20.

Anyway, here are a handful of potential bullpen trade targets, some realistic, some a bit far fetched. Let’s start with far fetched.

 

Aroldis Chapman- L NY Yankees

Here’s the smaller of two reasons this ain’t gonna happen: Chapman is a bad-ass, and even as a rent-a-player, the Yanks would want at least one excellent prospect in return. The M’s might have one or two guys that project as “excellent”, but not many. Maybe Peterson plus a little extra would get it done, but if they do decide to sell, the competition will be fierce, and most teams have more to offer than the M’s do.

The bigger reason: I suspect the Yanks won’t be sellers. Rumor has it that a contingent of front office personnel led by GM Brian Cashman want them to be, but others, including owner Hal Steinbrenner, think they’re still in it. And since the former works for the latter, I suspect the Yanks will look to add rather than subtract, unless they have a terrible couple of weeks.

 

Alex Colome- R Tampa Bay 

The Rays are going nowhere fast. At a whopping 20 games under .500, they’re the only AL East team that’s unquestionably out of it. But that doesn’t mean they’re gonna just start giving their best players away.

Colome has been one of very few bright spots for the Rays. He just made his first All Star team, has 19 saves, a stellar 1.69 ERA and a fantastic K’s per 9 of 11.0. And he isn’t arbitration eligible until 2018, meaning the Rays are probably in no rush to part with his affordable ass.

For these reasons, he would likely cost more than Chapman, meaning the M’s could say goodbye to two of their best prospects. Again, in the event that the Rays moved him, odds are a team with a stronger farm system would win his services.

 

Sean Doolittle- L Oakland

Now we’re getting into the realm of the more reasonable. Barring not just a miracle, but a series of them, the A’s are out of contention. Doolittle is signed through 2018 (with team options for 2019 and 2020), at a salary that would be reasonable to most clubs, but perhaps not to the fixed income A’s.

Doolittle isn’t a great option at closer as he is only so-so against right-handed batters, but he fucking murders lefties (.152 batting average against, .475 OPS and a ridiculous 17 K’s/9).

Best of all he probably wouldn’t cost a (left) arm and a leg as he doesn’t really profile as a stopper and Oakland would likely be glad to be rid of his contract. I’d like to think that lesser prospects with some upside like Austin Wilson and/or Gareth Morgan would get a deal done, but that could be wishful thinking on my part.

(Update: Doolittle is currently on the DL, and unless he has Wolverine-like healing powers, he’s probably not an option. What the hell do I know. huh?) 

 

Fernando Abad- L Minnesota 

The Twins have been pretty much out of it since Anzac Day (that’s early, trust me). Abad’s eligible for arbitration this winter, so unless the Twins believe they can very quickly turn things around, they may balk at the large salary increase he’ll be seeking.

Abad has also owned same-handed batters this season, holding them to a meager .163 batting average against, so if Doolittle lands elsewhere or stays put, he’s another solid option.

 

Tyler Clippard- R Arizona

Not my ideal pickup, considering I still have fresh memories of watching Clippard pitch like horseshit in all three rounds of the 2015 playoffs for the Mets. Still, he’s having a pretty good year for a bad team, and would be a reasonable option for the seventh or eighth inning if the price is right.

 

Blaine Boyer- R Milwaukee

The Brew Crew probably wishes they’d dealt Boyer a month ago. He was humming right along before a couple of shit outings spiked his ERA. He’s been hot and cold since, posting scoreless outings in four of his last seven appearances.

The good news is that free agent-to-be Boyer wouldn’t cost much. The bad news? There are reasons other than his contract status and a couple bad outings as to why that is. Boyer gives up well over a hit per inning, and strikes out just 3.5 batters per nine; a bad stat for a starter, much less a reliever. Giving up anything other than a middling prospect for him would be a waste.

 

Joe Smith- R LA Angels 

Dipoto knows Smith well from his time in Anaheim, so I would imagine he’d at least kick the tires on this one. Those tires are a bit worn though.

Smith is having by far the worst season of his ten year-long career, with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. He’s currently sporting a -0.1 WAR, so the Halos would have to have balls to ask for anything of real value for him. At best he’s a last ditch option to add depth to the ‘pen.

 

Again, all of this is subject to change. If the M’s come out of the break and go on some epic losing streak, I really don’t see them trading players who could be useful next year and beyond to shore up the bullpen in the short term. But hopefully said epic losing streak can be avoided and we’ll have something to fun to talk about at the end of the month.

 

Why Are the Mariners Mediocre?

I’m all about the numbers. Truly. While some people allow their hopes and dreams to influence the way they think events will unfold, I coldly and consistently cleave to what the statistics tell me. 

 

This approach of mine leads to all manner of arguments. Whether it’s politics, sports or just life in general, it’s suggested, if not outright stated, that I should let my heart lead the way. Have faith! Be a believer! I generally respond by saying that I am a believer- in what the numbers tell me. If I wanted to be a bit more direct, my response would be more along the lines of, “Have faith? Why the fuck should I?”

I’ve been called negative for most of my life, and while I can’t completely deny such an accusation, I still contend that what I am is a realist. I’ll have faith in a desired outcome. But only if it makes sense. If that approach is seen by some as a contradiction of faith, then so be it. The point is, I believe what I believe, when I feel compelled to believe it. Believe that.

I will, however, admit that even numbers can fail to tell the whole story. So it is with the 2016 Seattle Mariners.

If someone had asked me to predict the M’s’ record based on their plus-48 run differential (fourth in the AL), I’d guess that they were, at worst, six or seven games above .500 and probably in the drivers’ seat for a wildcard berth, if not a division title. If you added that they were 12th in all of baseball in batting average and 7th in OPS while simultaneously holding a team ERA and batting average against that both ranked 10th, again, I’d figure this was a winning team.

But it isn’t a winning team. By definition, a winning team wins more games than it loses, and the M’s sit right at .500 this evening. So why aren’t they better?

For one thing, the M’s are a piss-poor 13-18 in one run games. Good teams generally find a way to win close games. Case in point: the West-leading Rangers boast a record of 19-7 in one run games. That’s insane, and it can’t last all season, but it’s been enough to allow Texas to leave the M’s in their wake.

Obviously the club’s performance in close games is only one piece of the puzzle. Another is poor base-running.

Just eight teams have seen their players caught stealing more often than the Mariners have been nailed. That doesn’t seem like such a big deal until you consider that every one of those eight clubs has successfully stolen anywhere from nine to FIFTY-TWO more bases than Seattle has.

In other words, no team in Major League Baseball has squandered as many opportunities, while failing to benefit on other occasions, than the Mariners have. Sure, runners for the Astros have been erased three more times than M’s runners, but the ‘stros also have two and a half times more successful steals to show for it.

Oh, and then there’s this: the M’s simply haven’t been able to really get hot. There was a stretch in April and May where they won series after series. But they followed that up with a disastrous stretch that saw them drop 15 of 20 games from June 3 and 23. So they essentially squandered nearly all the good fortune they’d accumulated in April and May in the span of three weeks. Things can unravel just that quickly.

Ever since, the club has been incapable of achieving anything resembling true momentum. They enjoyed a 7-2 homestand against three good teams in late June and early July, but have since lost five of six games on their current road trip. This is all a meandering way of saying that unless the M’s become scorching hot sometime in the next few weeks, this team is fucked.

Of course, some of these things, like bad luck in close games and on the basepaths can be overcome if a club is reasonably well-constructed and can stay healthy. On that latter point, the M’s have been anything but fortunate. The team has dealt with injuries to several starting pitchers, a slew of relievers and, at one point, its only two speedy position players. The M’s are simply not deep enough to withstand these sorts of setbacks.

To be fair, new GM Jerry Dipoto did a pretty admirable job adding talent over the winter. He remade the bullpen, added two starting pitchers and acquired both a durable veteran catcher (Chris Iannetta) and a defensive wiz to man center field (Leonys Martin). But the two starters have performed poorly, and the bullpen is overworked. Moreover, Dipoto was prohibited from adding any real difference-makers via trade because the M’s’ farm system is well below average.

If I’m being nice, the Mariners are in the bottom third of the league as far as minor league talent goes. A few years ago, their farm system was considered among the best. But something was clearly very wrong in the way they were developing players, because even those who did well in the minors seemed to hit a wall in the bigs. Worse yet, in most cases (Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Chris Taylor, Mike Zunino) once they hit that wall, they were never able to make the necessary adjustments to get over the hump.

That, coupled with a freak injury here and there (Danny Hultzen, you poor bastard) rendered a once esteemed farm system more or less barren of difference-making talent. A lack of such talent means that any trade acquisitions are going to be somewhat lacking; players past their primes or, at best, guys coming off bad years that teams have given up on. It’s not impossible to win with guys like that, but it’s pretty fucking difficult.

Now, it’d be one thing if the M’s lacked minor league impact players because their big league roster was loaded with good young players, but nothing could be further from the truth. On the offensive side, all they’ve got is Ketel Marte, who could potentially develop into an All Star shortstop, but is just as likely to be a replacement-level infielder. For pitching, there’s Taijuan Walker and his sky-high ceiling, but he has yet to put it all together and is currently on the DL. Edwin Diaz looks electric. But how many flame-throwing M’s relievers have either flamed out or were used as trade bait in mostly futile attempts to improve the team in other areas?

Baseball is flush with exciting young talent. If you randomly select a big league team, there’s an excellent chance they have at least one player who is in the early stages of a career that will feature multiple All Star seasons. Shit, the Red Sox have three position players between ages 23 and 26 who are starting this year’s mid-summer classic. (And it isn’t just that Boston players are over-hyped; Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley all deserve to be there.)

But while fans of teams like the Sox, Nationals, Dodgers, Mets, even the lowly Twins, can look forward to watching fantastic players for years to come, M’s’ fans are forced to admire this influx of youth from afar.

And that’s what’s so disconcerting about the 2016 Mariners- this is probably as good as it’s gonna get for the foreseeable future. In fact, with several of their best players either past their prime or damn close to it, things will probably be decidedly worse in 2017 and 2018.

So as I question the reasons for the Mariners’ mediocrity, I do so knowing that there’s a better than even money chance that I’ll be watching a team that’s something worse than mediocre a year or two from now. But, given the sorry state of their minor league system, at least I won’t have to wonder why they suck.

Well, I guess there’s our answer, and it’s a fairly common one. Why are the Mariners mediocre? For a host of reasons. Bad luck, bad decisions on the bases, an unsettling lack of depth that is probably gonna get worse before it gets before. I could go on. I will go on, in days to come. The only thing that feels certain is that a season that felt so promising just a month ago feels all but certain to end exactly like the past fourteen seasons have: with M’s players planning tee times in October.

 

 

Midterm Report: Grading the Mariners’ Offense

From 2010 to 2015, the Seattle Mariners’ offense could best be described as an abomination.

 

That may seem harsh on the surface, but consider these team batting average rankings for those seasons….

2010: 30th in MLB (dead last) (.236)

2011: 30th (.233)

2012: 30th (.234)

2013: 28th (.237)

2014: 23rd (.244)

2015: 23rd (.249) 

As you can see, I wasn’t kidding. The high water mark for the M’s in the past six seasons was breaking into the lower depths of the bottom third of the league. That’s a little depressing.

The 2016 season, however, has seen a noticeable uptick in offensive performance. Though the M’s sit just two games over .500, the offense has more than pulled its weight for the most part. They rank 12th in batting average (.262), 11th in on-base percentage (.328) and 5th in slugging (.442). This is a real offense.

There are still some significant shortcomings- a lack of success in base-stealing comes quickly to mind- but the Mariners are, for the first time in nearly a decade, capable of handing a lineup card to an umpire without shame.

Let us take a look at who has contributed, and who hasn’t. (Defensive contributions are factored in to grades.)

 

Robinson Cano- 2B: A 

His early season power surge has dissipated, but it’s extremely difficult to be critical of Robbie’s performance thus far. He ranks in the AL top ten in hits, home runs and RBI and has played characteristically strong defense at the keystone. His 3.7 WAR is already higher than his entire total for the 2015 season. If that’s not progress, I don’t know what is.

Even while his run production has dipped, his average has remained strong (he’s currently batting .302, good for 14th in the league). At age 33 and with seven more years on his contract, there will be bad years ahead. This, however, doesn’t look to be one of them.

 

Nelson Cruz- DH/OF: A-minus

Nellie isn’t gonna give you anything with the glove, but his bat has remained lethal. He’s tied for 3rd in the AL with 22 home runs and is tied for 5th in RBI. He’s always been an imposing power threat, but his batting average has now stayed relatively high for the second consecutive season. If you can live with his shit defense and high strikeout rate, there’s not a whole lot to complain about.

 

Kyle Seager- 3B: A-minus

I was actually gonna go lower until I dove into Seager’s stat line a bit more closely.

The 2009 3rd rounder is currently enjoying career highs in slugging and on-base percentage while playing Gold Glove-caliber D at third. He’s also quietly on pace to reach career bests in hits, doubles, homers, RBI and walks.

The only real knock on the guy is he seems destined to never hit for a high average. After batting between .259 and .268 in his first four full seasons (he’s at .277 right now), it seems unlikely that he’ll ever contend for batting titles. Nevertheless, a guy who can club 20-30 homers, drive in runs and hold it down at third is nothing to sneeze at. I think we’ll keep him.

 

Ketel Marte- SS: B-minus 

The 22-year-old Marte boasts a meager 0.4 WAR so far this season while sometimes providing undesired adventure at shortstop. Sadly, that makes him perhaps the best shortstop Seattle has had in about fifteen fucking years.

His average is an entirely adequate .267 and he can steal a handful of bases. But there are some red flags. The most jarring number is 9, as in 9 walks for the season. This, after he drew 24 free passes in 39 fewer plate appearances last season. Naturally this has resulted in a rather poor .293 OBP, and that’s simply not acceptable going forward.

Again, he’s young, and there’s plenty of room for growth. But I’m still taking a wait-and-see approach to Marte.

 

Nori Aoki- OF: F

I’d been a pretty big Aoki fan for the past couple of years, so you can imagine how pleased I was when the M’s signed him last winter. “He’s exactly what we needed!”, cheered Steve. A model of consistency at the dish (had batted between .285 and .288 in his first four seasons) who could make contact and steal bases. I may not have seen Aoki as a difference-maker, but I thought he was clearly the right kind of player. Which, as it turns out, was the wrong kind of thinking.

Whether it’s due to age (he’s 34) or just bad luck, Aoki has been horrible. So horrible, in fact, that he was optioned to Tacoma last week. This was done in part because the club desperately needed to add a pitcher, but it was mostly because Aoki has been pretty useless.

The Japanese import has suffered career-worst numbers pretty much across the board: batting average, OBP and slugging, while being on pace to shatter his season high in strikeouts. Oh, and this is fun, too: while Aoki had stolen 81 bases in 114 attempts from 2012 to 2015 (71%), he’s been caught in seven of eleven tries this year.

To make a long story short, Aoki has nosedived in just about every possible way. So what the hell do I know?

 

Leonys Martin- OF: B 

I’m going maybe a full letter grade higher than I otherwise would have because Martin is exactly the kind of athletically-gifted centerfielder the M’s have needed since Franklin Gutierrez‘s decline in health put his career in jeopardy five years ago. Yes, baseball is primarily about scoring runs, but it’s also about preventing them, and no one on the M’s roster prevents runs as effectively as Martin.

His offensive output leaves a lot to be desired; this is a guy who is batting .247 (a year after hitting .219 in Texas) after all. He’s also striking out at an alarming rate for a player of his profile. But his offense is not without merit. Martin has already established a new career high with 11 home runs, and aside from Marte, he’s the only stolen base threat on the team.

If he can cut down on his strikeouts and stay healthy, Martin should be an important and stabilizing part of the club for the next several years.

 

Seth Smith- OF: B-minus 

Eli Manning‘s former Ole Miss backup has been hot of late, seeing his average spike to .278 and reaching double digits in homers despite only playing about two thirds of his team’s games. His defense is lousy, but he’s a very real threat against right-handed pitching, forming a rather good corner outfield platoon with Guti.

 

Adam Lind- 1B/DH: C-minus 

I must say, I was expecting a little bit more. Given that he’s part of a platoon at first, Lind’s numbers aren’t awful- he’s hit 12 homers and driven in 36- but he just hasn’t really been able to get going. He’s further hurt by his shit defense at first (when the 34-year-old 300 pounder you platoon with is the superior defender, that’s not good).

All told, Lind has been a negative WAR player through the first half of the season. Maybe this is why Milwaukee let him go for next to nothing.

 

Franklin Gutierrez- OF: B-minus 

I went slightly higher on Guti’s grade in large measure because I’m somewhat amazed he’s still alive, much less that he’s provided some value. This poor son of a bitch has seen his career repeatedly threatened by freak injuries and horrific gastrointestinal injuries over the past half decade, yet he’s still standing…most of the time.

Once a truly outstanding centerfielder, Guti has had to settle for having a career at all rather than the career he seemed poised to have. I suspect that if his health had held up, he’d have four or five Gold Gloves by now. But then, things don’t always work out the way they appear they will. Just ask Grady Sizemore.

While he got off to a terrible start, Guti has evened out some. He’s no longer Death to Flying Things (we still miss you, Dave), but he’s a respectable defensive outfielder who, provided he isn’t overworked, can absolutely murder left-handed pitching.

 

Chris Iannetta- C: C-plus 

The best thing I can think so say is that Iannetta has met, though certainly hasn’t exceeded, expectations. Low batting average? Check. Occasional pop? Sure. Solid defense behind the plate? For the most part, yes.

What the M’s needed more than anything from Iannetta was for him to merely stay on the field and not embarrass himself. The club received worse production from the catcher position last season than perhaps any other team in the history of Major League Baseball. So that Iannetta has been able to start the vast majority of games and keep his average above .200 and hold his own defensively is good enough.

Former #3 overall pick Mike Zunino (he who started the bulk of games for that historically bad 2015 squad) is still, at best, a question mark. Iannetta has, if nothing else, given Zunino a year to try and figure shit out in the minors. Which I certainly appreciate after watching that olive oil-voiced motherfucker flail at pitches a foot out of the strike zone last year.

 

Dae-Ho Lee- 1B: A-minus 

The hope was that the 34-year-old former Korean and Japanese League star could mash lefties well enough to start 60 or so games. He’s been substantially better than that. Lee has actually hit right-handers a bit better than lefties, and as alluded to earlier, hasn’t been half bad defensively. In fact, I’m at a loss to criticize any area of his performance. He’s got a good average (.293), hits for power and doesn’t strike out much.

I suspect that if Lee were run out there 155 times in a season, his stat line would suffer somewhat. Fortunately, that’s not what’s expected of the big man.

Though I initially had my doubts (I believe my exact words during his first start were, “You suck, Dae-Ho Lee”), Lee has proven to be a useful part of the club and, without question, a fan favorite.

 

In Conclusion:

Alright, so it ain’t the 1927 Yankees….or, for that matter, even the 1987 Yankees, who were decidedly less special. But after believing for the past six years that a two run deficit in the 5th inning (or a two run deficit in any inning) was insurmountable, I can at least say that the outlook has improved. Now if the goddamn pitching can cooperate….

 

 

Trade Them All!

Ah yes, I remember what this feels like.

 

The Seattle Mariners, who actually had the best record in the American League for about five seconds less than a month ago, are falling fast. They’ve plummeted from first place and ten games above .500 to third place (a whopping eleven games back) and a game below .500. This is the epitome of a free-fall.

As frustrating as it is to watch (and honestly, I haven’t done much watching lately), there’s something almost comforting about the Mariners being shitty. This, aside from a brief run of success on and off from the mid-90’s to early 2000’s, is what the M’s are. Just one other team in Major League Baseball has failed to advance to the World Series, and that team- the Washington Nationals- is a hell of a lot closer to rectifying that than the M’s are.

To be fair, this kind of regression is perfectly understandable, given how horribly the M’s have been ravaged by injuries. They’re currently missing 60% of their starting rotation. Five of the relievers on their 40 man roster have been out for months. And for a couple of weeks earlier this month, they were almost entirely devoid of speed in the lineup when Leonys Martin and Ketel Marte hit the DL within days of each other. Christ, even Adrian Sampson, called up to start until the rotation can get healthy, was pulled from his start this afternoon due to elbow soreness before he could even throw a single pitch.

In short, the M’s very quickly became a team with zero pitching depth and no offensive consistency.  They’ve had to acquire a couple of Band-Aid’s for the rotation just to put a live human being on the mound, trading for Zach Lee and Wade LeBlanc within the past week.

(Actually, calling them Band-Aid’s isn’t fair. They make a quality product. Lee and LeBlanc have much more in common with a lesser bandage brand like Curad and Nexcare.)

Sooo yeah. While the M’s woes are completely understandable, it’s still been a bitch to watch. Despite their recent ineptitude, the club is still just a few games out of the wildcard chase. Hope remains, right?? Well…..hmmm…..

Here’s the thing:  unless the Mariners can get healthy fast, there’s no credible reason to believe they’ll be able to stay in contention for much longer. Hey, if I’m wrong and the M’s rally and play meaningful baseball in August and September, boy, won’t my face be red! I’m not gonna be wrong though. This team just doesn’t have the depth to withstand even a smattering of key injuries, much less a rash of them.

So if and when the M’s are essentially out of contention a month from now, what is GM Jerry Dipoto to do? He may do well to take a page out of the Mad King’s playbook and burn the whole fucking thing down.

That probably seems like an overly dramatic reaction to a bad few weeks of baseball, but I don’t believe it is. Teams like the Cubs, Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Dodgers or Astros can endure a terrible stretch and still hold their heads high, because those clubs are loaded with young talent. Even if they fall short this year, they have every reason to believe they’ll bounce back in 2017 and beyond.

The Mariners, on the other hand, have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball (thanks, Jack Zduriencik). There are no potential franchise saviors honing their craft down in Double or Triple-A. A few potentially useful players, yes, but no superstars in the making.

(One of those “potentially useful players”, outfielder Boog Powell, was just suspended for 80 games for PED violations. Thanks, Jonathan Salgado.)

What the M’s do have are a handful of quality veteran players that playoff-sniffing clubs would probably be interested in. Some of them will be tough sells (unless the M’s eat a whole lot of salary, there’s no way they get anything of real value for Robinson Cano), and others, like the currently injured Felix Hernandez, will hopefully be more valuable in a trade this winter than this July.

The M’s could, however, pick up some decent building blocks if they’re willing to part with the likes of Nelson Cruz, Adam Lind, Hisashi Iwakuma, Seth Smith and perhaps Wade Miley. None of them will command a king’s ransom, but a team that needs an explosive power bat might be willing to part with a good prospect for Cruz and his semi-reasonable salary. The returns on the other guys would be decidedly more modest, but when a team is as devoid of young talent as the M’s are, every middle of the road prospect helps.

I wouldn’t deem anybody on this thin, rather flawed team “untouchable”, but there’s little reason to trade solid young players like Marte, Martin, Taijuan Walker or James Paxton. They all have several years of club-control and, since none have really broken out yet, their trade value would be fairly low anyway. Pretty much everybody else should be potential trade bait. Perhaps even Kyle Seager.

The decision on whether to trade Seager is a complicated one. He’s under contract through the 2021 season and is currently in his prime years. As such, he’d almost certainly bring in the biggest haul in a potential deal. But since he’s just 28, it’s certainly conceivable that he’ll still be performing at a high level three or four years from now when the M’s, should they go into fire-sale mode, could be a playoff threat again.

Taking all that into account, I suppose I’d be inclined to hang on to Seager for his veteran presence and solid production, unless a team made an offer too good to refuse.

I imagine it would be incredibly difficult for Dipoto to dismantle a club that looked like a playoff team just a few weeks ago. But if he wants to still have a job three years from now, he may not be able to cross his fingers and hope that the M’s’ again core will continue to produce in 2017 and 2018. We’ve already witnessed what appears to be the decline of Felix; Cano and Cruz can’t be far behind. If they can’t win with those guys now, they probably never will.

Which is why I propose that Dipoto’s only shot at long term employment is to start rebuilding now and hope that things start to come together by the 2019 season. I promise you, it’s difficult for me to say that. This team has been shit for longer than I could have ever imagined. And Felix has been the lone bright spot in a great many of those horrible teams. Losing him would be painful. But so would watching him go through yet another rebuilding process without having ever so much as taken the mound in a playoff game.

Again, all of this is dependent on what happens between now and July 31. But if July shakes out the way that June has (and given the logjam on the disabled list, that’s absolutely possible, if not likely), hard choices will need to be made. Goddammit.

Where’s Your Crown, King Nothing?

Sometimes it appears to happen all at once. In other instances, like this one, you can see it coming. In either case, it’s hard to watch. 

 

To claim that the great Felix Hernandez hasn’t significantly declined would require a degree of dishonesty that I have no interest in visiting. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Or the numbers as it were.

Through his first ten starts of 2016, Felix is 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA. If that doesn’t sound so bad, it’s primarily because wins and ERA are rather poor measures of how well a pitcher is performing. These numbers were also helped along by the fact that, entering play yesterday, opposing teams were just 4-52 against Hernandez with runners in scoring position. Feel free to chalk that up to the King’s competitiveness, but that kind of success simply isn’t sustainable.

The more alarming features of Felix’s season can be easily spotted elsewhere. His command seems to have deserted him, as he’s walked 26 batters in just 63 innings. That’s 3.7 free passes per nine innings pitched, the worst mark of his career. Such a walk rate is acceptable for many relievers, but not for a starting pitcher, much less an ace.

This missing command, coupled with another decrease in velocity, has conspired to damn Felix is another way: He just isn’t missing bats like he used to. His 7.6 K’s/9 is, you guessed it, the worst of his career. More balls put into play, more damage done. You don’t need sabermetrics to understand that. It’s been eight years since Hernandez has struck out less than 190 batters in a season. He may have trouble topping 150 in this campaign.

Last night, Felix faced off against, by far, the worst team in baseball. Yet the Twins clobbered him for six earned runs on eight hits over six innings. He actually pitched fairly well in five of those frames, but the 3rd inning was an unmitigated disaster. And that, unfortunately, has been something of a trend over the past year or so; one absolutely horrid inning doing Felix in.

It didn’t help that the M’s offense made Twins’ journeyman lefty Pat Dean look like Sandy motherfucking Koufax. He was able to scatter four hits over seven innings while striking out eight and walking none. The M’s’ 7-9 hitters were particularly worthless, going a combined 0-9 with seven strikeouts. But let’s be real here- if you need your offense to put up seven runs for you, there’s a problem.

Although Felix’s apparent decline is painful, it’s entirely understandable. He’s just 30 years old, but there are a lot of innings on that powerful right arm. Many of the pitchers who thrive in their thirties have something quite significant in common: they were often late bloomers.

Take Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, for example. Going into their own age 30 seasons, Randy had topped the 200 inning mark in a season four times; Schilling only twice. Felix has done it eight years in a row, and came damn close in the two previous campaigns.

Much of this workload was understandable; the kid was ready for the majors well before his 21st birthday. The only really frustrating part is that he was needlessly overworked for a stretch of years in which the M’s didn’t so much as sniff .500, much less the playoffs. Did he really need to exceed 230 innings from 2010 to 2012, when the club was routinely losing 90-plus games a year? Certainly not. That may seem like a 20/20 hindsight argument, but it isn’t. Plenty of people were expressing concerns over his workload in these lost seasons. And now here we are.

Would Hernandez have a little more left in the tank had a more responsible organization shaved 20 to 30 innings off of his totals in these seasons? Perhaps, but it’s impossible to say at this point. It appears that this is who Felix is now. A decent analog might be Yankees southpaw CC Sabathia.

Sabathia was another boy wonder, who broke into the bigs at age 20 (Felix debuted at 19) and, despite, something resembling innings limits in his early 20’s, was soon topping 230 IP on the regular. He’s still a serviceable starting pitcher who will kick your ass every once in a while (and, having come out of rehab last year, he may even have a little more left than previously thought), but he’s highly unlikely to be a serious Cy Young candidate again.

Sabathia’s last very strong showing came in 2012, when he was 31. The next few years were unkind, for certain. Had he played with a shitty offense behind him in 2013, he might have lost 20 games.

Nevertheless, that Sabathia, 3,000 big league innings and all, is still a competitive player may be the silver lining here. Felix will almost certainly never touch his 2009-2014 peak, but he can still be a valuable member of the M’s’ rotation for several more years.

The King allowed many truly horrible Mariner teams to climb on his back. With any luck (always a big if with the Mariners), maybe an improved M’s’ club can carry him now. It’s the least he deserves.

Who the Fuck Are These Guys?

There are just four teams in Major League Baseball with better winning percentages than the Seattle Mariners. Stop fucking laughing- I’m serious! 

 

 

I’m accustomed to being able to make such a claim on, say, April 7. But in the middle of May? Well, let’s just say it’s been a while. For the sake of comparison, last year on this date, there were seventeen teams with better winning percentages.

So why is this happening? Well, for starters, it seems that new GM Jerry Dipoto has succeeded in pasting together a more consistent lineup from top to bottom.

Last season was doomed in large part from a near total lack of production from the bottom third of the lineup. Catcher Mike Zunino never even sniffed a .200 average and struck out like it was his job. Dustin Ackley didn’t top the .200 mark for good until fucking July. It was bad.

While the 2016 Mariners haven’t been immune to slow starts (I hope that Nori Aoki and Kyle Seager will hit better than .238 and .228, respectively), no one has failed to produce as powerfully as Zunino or Ackley. As a club, they don’t rank better than 11th in batting average, OBP or slugging, but with a pretty strong performance by the pitching staff, a middle of the pack offense is more than adequate for now.

One of the guys who isn’t hitting is centerfielder Leonys Martin. However, he’s already hit five home runs (his career high is eight), is stealing a handful of bases and, most importantly, has been a stud defensively.

When Austin Jackson was here, the story was that he was a well above average defensive CF. Maybe that was true four or five years ago when he was in Detroit, but those defensive chops were hardly evident during his stay in the Emerald City. In fact, calling him anything more than adequate would be a stretch. Martin, on the other hand, has been everything that was advertised.

There are two other guys whose early production warrants a shout-out. The first is the $240 million man himself, Robinson Cano.

I’ll be honest- I would have been satisfied if Cano had 12 HR at the All Star break. For him to have reached that number well before Memorial Day is both unexpected and glorious. Looks like his injuries really did hamper him last season.

I by no means expect for Cano to keep us his power pace and club 50-plus home runs on the year, but the early returns are encouraging nonetheless. His 2.1 WAR is already more than half of what he mustered for the entire 2015 campaign, he’s still roping doubles and his strikeout rate has dropped significantly.

I also need to give it up to shortstop Ketel Marte. He still scares the shit out of me defensively, but the kid can hit (.294/.323/389), he can run and, despite his inexperience leading to more errors than I’d like, he has shown flashes of brilliance at short.

What I find the most comfort in is that Marte appears to have dodged the Mariner sophomore slump. A wide array of infielders (Ackley, Brad Miller, Chris Taylor, shit, just about everybody but Seager) have done well for the M’s initially, before completely shitting the bed after their first 200 AB or so. Marte seems to be the exception.

But let’s be real here: it’s the M’s’ pitching that has them humming right along. Felix Hernandez– despite a great ERA- has struggled mightily with command, and Hisashi Iwakuma‘s performance may shed some light on why the Dodgers got cold feet, but otherwise, this group has been nails.

The trio of Taijuan Walker, Wade Miley and Nate Karns are keeping the team in games, and somehow the bullpen has been exceptional. I don’t expect the ‘pen to continue to be the best in the game, but if it can hover around the top ten, this team will remain dangerous.

I don’t know that this will be the year the M’s end their shameful 15 year playoff drought. If I had to guess, I’d say it probably isn’t. But that we’re talking about a relevant Mariners’ team in mid-May is extremely encouraging. And, given our recent history, that’s really all we can ask for. Goms.

Projecting the Mariners’ Opening Day Roster

That all too familiar sense of dread that overtakes me each spring has returned, and that can only mean one thing: the Seattle Mariners’ regular season is almost upon us. 

 

They say that Opening Day is great, because, at the start of it at least, everyone is equal; we’re all undefeated! For this reason, it is often my happiest day in a given Mariner season. But it’s a day that still comes with a handful of questions, and this year is no different.

Who is the fifth starter? Who will be the utility infielder? Are there enough healthy relievers in camp with which to assemble an entire bullpen? I don’t have the answers to any of these questions, but that’s never stopped me before!!

 

The Rotation

Who’s In? 

Felix Hernandez-R/Hisashi Iwakuma-R/Wade Miley-L/Taijuan Walker-R

Just as with the Democratic presidential nomination, the competition for the Mariners’ fifth starter gig is a two person race. But unlike the Democratic presidential race, this one is actually a legitimate tossup with two equally deserving candidates (that’s right, I fuckin’ said it; Hillary or bust, motherfuckers…do not make me start singing “Cult of Personality”). So will it be Nate Karns or James Paxton?

Normally these things work themselves out, because somebody gets hurt. And considering that Paxton is about as injury-prone as they come (excepting the remarkably injurrific tandem of Danny Hultzen and Franklin Gutierrez), it’s a bit of a surprise that he’s still in one piece.

For three reasons of varying importance, I think Karns is gonna get the duke. First, the M’s had to part with a pretty decent young hitter in Brad Miller to acquire Karns, so it stands to reason they placed a higher value on him than that of a Triple-A starter.

Moreover, while the M’s want Paxton to log a good amount of innings following two injury-shortened seasons, they probably don’t want to have to depend on his delicate ass too heavily. Allowing him, for at least part of the year, to not be obligated to put up half a dozen innings every fifth day might not be the worst thing in the world.

Finally, and most importantly, Karns has just looked better, striking out more batters, while posting a lower WHIP and much lower ERA. In short, he appears to offer a considerably higher level of consistency and dependability at this point.

Having said all that, Paxton, who has flashed potential near-front-of-the-rotation stuff, probably has a higher ceiling, so really this is anyone’s guess.

All things considered, the rotation looks to be at least a modest strength for the M’s. Felix and Kuma comprise a pretty solid 1-2 punch, and if Walker takes the next step in his development, this could be one of the best rotations in the league.

 

The Bullpen

Who’s In?

Uh….Steve Cishek-R/Joaquin Benoit-R/Vidal Nuno-L

Most years, I wouldn’t be sure about Nuno, but since Charlie Furbush is a longshot to be ready for Opening Day and there needs to be at least one goddamn lefty in the ‘pen, I’d say that Nuno can pretty comfortably plan to be in Seattle come April.

Owing again primarily to attrition, it’s highly probable that righty Tony Zych and southpaw Mike Montgomery (who is out of minor league options) will make the team to start the season. So that’s five of seven spots. Who gets the other two? I have no fucking idea.

What, you want me to guess? Oh, I suppose it might be…er, let’s see here…..Blake Parker! The righty has looked reasonably good this spring, and he has a pretty sweet beard, so I think I’ll go with him.

As for the final spot, I’m not yet convinced that anyone presently on the roster will get the nod. At least I hope not, because this group is pretty underwhelming. I’m hoping that some semi-dependable reliever will be cut loose by another club and then join the M’s. Time will tell.

On paper, the bullpen staff appears most likely to torpedo the season, though it’s hard to place too much blame on new GM Jerry Dipoto for this situation. Owing to roster-wide weaknesses, Dipoto was more or less forced to trade Tom Wilhelmsen and Danny Farquhar to add depth elsewhere.

Losing Carson Smith was a huge blow, and could prove to be a significant regret, but it make some sense at the time, because Iwakuma appeared headed to LA before injury concerns nixed the deal. This made the need for another starter (Miley from Boston) rather dire. Had Dipoto known he’d “reacquire” Kuma, perhaps he doesn’t make this deal, but how could he have possibly anticipated that?

Nevertheless, when your most dependable reliever is a 38-year-old setup man, there’s cause for alarm. Only than crossing our fingers, there’s really not much we can do about this now.

 

Catcher

Who’s In?

Chris Iannetta

With broken former third overall pick Mike Zunino attempting to fix himself down in Tacoma, the backup catcher gig will come down to a choice between two left-handed hitters; Steve Clevenger and recently acquired Rob Brantly. Both have looked fine this spring, but Clevenger has a bit more experience and can man first base in a pinch. My guess is that unless Brantly just tears the cover off the ball in the next ten days or so, Clevenger will be the guy.

 

Infield

Who’s In?

Adam Lind-1B/Robinson Cano-2B/Kyle Seager-3B/Ketel Marte-SS

Alright, so the starters are set, but the backups will be of great importance. Lind is comically bad against left-handed pitching, so a righty platoon-ish option is more or less necessary. It looked like it would be Jesus Montero‘s job to lose, but…well, he may have lost it. Korean slugger Dae-Ho Lee has impressed this spring and, since he can opt of of his deal should he not make the club, I assume he’ll stay and Montero will be kicked to the curb.

Of perhaps equal importance will be the utility infielder. Chris Taylor has been given several looks over the past couple seasons, and let’s just say he’s failed to impress at the plate. Shawn O’Malley looked nice in a September audition last season and has had a terrific spring. He can also play the outfield somewhat capably, so that works in his favor as well. But while he’s played second and third, he hasn’t played any shortstop in the bigs. This is a bit of a strike against him, because Marte figures to be given more days off than either Cano or Seager.

As such, a capable shortstop is close to compulsory. This favors Luis Sardinas, who handles the glove pretty well at short, third and second. I suppose he’s my pick, though I’m sort of rooting for O’Malley.

 

Outfield

Who’s In? Well, almost everybody.

This group is pretty well settled. On most days, we’re likely to see Nori Aoki in left, Leonys Martin in center and either Seth Smith or Franklin Gutierrez in right, while Nelson Cruz will get some time in right as well when he isn’t DH’ing.

The one wrinkle in this plan is that the club is hoping the rather brittle Guti can spell Martin in center against tough lefties. That poses a bit of a problem, because Guti isn’t the athlete he once was, and preserving his suddenly potent bat should be a higher priority than squeezing innings out of him at a more physically demanding position.

If O’Malley makes the club as the backup infielder, these concerns are more or less erased, because he’s capable of playing center as well. (Hey, like I said, I’m pulling for the guy.)

 

In Conclusion:

Look, frankly I’m sick of trying to figure this fucking team out. Just when I expect them to take that next step (2010 and last season come immediately to mind), they have a tendency to wildly disappoint.

I will say that Dipoto seems more adept as roster construction than his predecessor, whose philosophy seemed to change by the year (On-base guys! No, wait- right-handed power bats! Hey, I wonder if Rickie Weeks can play the outfield….). So, if nothing else, there’s a chance for a pretty good season of Mariners’ baseball.

Let’s hope so anyway, because if they fall on their faces, it may trigger yet another rebuild and, by extension, good seasons will be in short supply for quite some time.