A Realistic Approach to the Trade Deadline

It would appear that my Mad King approach to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline will not be heeded by Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto. 

 

I’m actually relieved (future pun intended). Even if it ends up biting us in the ass down the line, I had little interest in watching a bunch of nobodies lose 100 games the next couple years. I’ve seen quite enough of that already.

Plans could certainly change if the M’s, say, go out and lose ten of their next twelve games. But for now, the approach appears to involve making modest additions to the team’s core rather than blowing it all up.

If you followed the Mariners over the winter, this is nothing new- Dipoto likes to make deals. For this reason, I would put the odds of Seattle standing pat at the deadline at just above zero percent.

It has to be noted yet again that the Mariners have one of the poorer minor league systems in the game, so it’s difficult to believe that pricey studs like Ryan Braun or Andrew Miller will be relocating to the Emerald City in the coming weeks. But that doesn’t mean that significant additions aren’t possible.

With Felix Hernadez set to return soon (and hopefully Taijuan Walker to follow shortly thereafter), the M’s may not have a desperate need for another starter. But their bullpen, despite early season success, is in serious need of an upgrade. Ideally the club would pick up a new closer, because while Steve Cishek has been adequate, he is absolutely not the guy you want to turn to in the ninth inning of a playoff game. (Yes, I know I’m getting ahead of myself here, but I’m trying this positively business.)

The club has four, maybe five guys currently active who I would deem somewhat valuable relievers. So really, adding two arms should be the priority, with at least one of them being a setup man or closer. As long as we’re asking, the second guy should probably be a lefty.

Again, the M’s don’t have a lot to offer, though guys on the big league roster like Adam Lind or Franklin Gutierrez might net a decent reliever from a team in need of a bat. (If I’m an NL GM for a playoff contender, for instance, I’d be willing to part with an arm if I could add Guti to a club that might have to face Clayton Kershaw two or three times in a postseason series.)

Of course, the kinds of teams that would look to acquire a Lind or a Guti would be contenders, meaning they’d be exceedingly unlikely to jettison a valuable reliever unless they had a massive surplus of arms. I can’t really think of too many teams who fit that profile.

And then there’s that other option- sending off one or two of our few valuable prospects for instant returns. 2013 1st round pick DJ Peterson seems to have finally found himself, and could be coveted by a club seeking a young, cost-controlled corner infielder. Ditto outfielder Alex Jackson, who has been making some progress at age 20.

Anyway, here are a handful of potential bullpen trade targets, some realistic, some a bit far fetched. Let’s start with far fetched.

 

Aroldis Chapman- L NY Yankees

Here’s the smaller of two reasons this ain’t gonna happen: Chapman is a bad-ass, and even as a rent-a-player, the Yanks would want at least one excellent prospect in return. The M’s might have one or two guys that project as “excellent”, but not many. Maybe Peterson plus a little extra would get it done, but if they do decide to sell, the competition will be fierce, and most teams have more to offer than the M’s do.

The bigger reason: I suspect the Yanks won’t be sellers. Rumor has it that a contingent of front office personnel led by GM Brian Cashman want them to be, but others, including owner Hal Steinbrenner, think they’re still in it. And since the former works for the latter, I suspect the Yanks will look to add rather than subtract, unless they have a terrible couple of weeks.

 

Alex Colome- R Tampa Bay 

The Rays are going nowhere fast. At a whopping 20 games under .500, they’re the only AL East team that’s unquestionably out of it. But that doesn’t mean they’re gonna just start giving their best players away.

Colome has been one of very few bright spots for the Rays. He just made his first All Star team, has 19 saves, a stellar 1.69 ERA and a fantastic K’s per 9 of 11.0. And he isn’t arbitration eligible until 2018, meaning the Rays are probably in no rush to part with his affordable ass.

For these reasons, he would likely cost more than Chapman, meaning the M’s could say goodbye to two of their best prospects. Again, in the event that the Rays moved him, odds are a team with a stronger farm system would win his services.

 

Sean Doolittle- L Oakland

Now we’re getting into the realm of the more reasonable. Barring not just a miracle, but a series of them, the A’s are out of contention. Doolittle is signed through 2018 (with team options for 2019 and 2020), at a salary that would be reasonable to most clubs, but perhaps not to the fixed income A’s.

Doolittle isn’t a great option at closer as he is only so-so against right-handed batters, but he fucking murders lefties (.152 batting average against, .475 OPS and a ridiculous 17 K’s/9).

Best of all he probably wouldn’t cost a (left) arm and a leg as he doesn’t really profile as a stopper and Oakland would likely be glad to be rid of his contract. I’d like to think that lesser prospects with some upside like Austin Wilson and/or Gareth Morgan would get a deal done, but that could be wishful thinking on my part.

(Update: Doolittle is currently on the DL, and unless he has Wolverine-like healing powers, he’s probably not an option. What the hell do I know. huh?) 

 

Fernando Abad- L Minnesota 

The Twins have been pretty much out of it since Anzac Day (that’s early, trust me). Abad’s eligible for arbitration this winter, so unless the Twins believe they can very quickly turn things around, they may balk at the large salary increase he’ll be seeking.

Abad has also owned same-handed batters this season, holding them to a meager .163 batting average against, so if Doolittle lands elsewhere or stays put, he’s another solid option.

 

Tyler Clippard- R Arizona

Not my ideal pickup, considering I still have fresh memories of watching Clippard pitch like horseshit in all three rounds of the 2015 playoffs for the Mets. Still, he’s having a pretty good year for a bad team, and would be a reasonable option for the seventh or eighth inning if the price is right.

 

Blaine Boyer- R Milwaukee

The Brew Crew probably wishes they’d dealt Boyer a month ago. He was humming right along before a couple of shit outings spiked his ERA. He’s been hot and cold since, posting scoreless outings in four of his last seven appearances.

The good news is that free agent-to-be Boyer wouldn’t cost much. The bad news? There are reasons other than his contract status and a couple bad outings as to why that is. Boyer gives up well over a hit per inning, and strikes out just 3.5 batters per nine; a bad stat for a starter, much less a reliever. Giving up anything other than a middling prospect for him would be a waste.

 

Joe Smith- R LA Angels 

Dipoto knows Smith well from his time in Anaheim, so I would imagine he’d at least kick the tires on this one. Those tires are a bit worn though.

Smith is having by far the worst season of his ten year-long career, with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. He’s currently sporting a -0.1 WAR, so the Halos would have to have balls to ask for anything of real value for him. At best he’s a last ditch option to add depth to the ‘pen.

 

Again, all of this is subject to change. If the M’s come out of the break and go on some epic losing streak, I really don’t see them trading players who could be useful next year and beyond to shore up the bullpen in the short term. But hopefully said epic losing streak can be avoided and we’ll have something to fun to talk about at the end of the month.

 

Why Are the Mariners Mediocre?

I’m all about the numbers. Truly. While some people allow their hopes and dreams to influence the way they think events will unfold, I coldly and consistently cleave to what the statistics tell me. 

 

This approach of mine leads to all manner of arguments. Whether it’s politics, sports or just life in general, it’s suggested, if not outright stated, that I should let my heart lead the way. Have faith! Be a believer! I generally respond by saying that I am a believer- in what the numbers tell me. If I wanted to be a bit more direct, my response would be more along the lines of, “Have faith? Why the fuck should I?”

I’ve been called negative for most of my life, and while I can’t completely deny such an accusation, I still contend that what I am is a realist. I’ll have faith in a desired outcome. But only if it makes sense. If that approach is seen by some as a contradiction of faith, then so be it. The point is, I believe what I believe, when I feel compelled to believe it. Believe that.

I will, however, admit that even numbers can fail to tell the whole story. So it is with the 2016 Seattle Mariners.

If someone had asked me to predict the M’s’ record based on their plus-48 run differential (fourth in the AL), I’d guess that they were, at worst, six or seven games above .500 and probably in the drivers’ seat for a wildcard berth, if not a division title. If you added that they were 12th in all of baseball in batting average and 7th in OPS while simultaneously holding a team ERA and batting average against that both ranked 10th, again, I’d figure this was a winning team.

But it isn’t a winning team. By definition, a winning team wins more games than it loses, and the M’s sit right at .500 this evening. So why aren’t they better?

For one thing, the M’s are a piss-poor 13-18 in one run games. Good teams generally find a way to win close games. Case in point: the West-leading Rangers boast a record of 19-7 in one run games. That’s insane, and it can’t last all season, but it’s been enough to allow Texas to leave the M’s in their wake.

Obviously the club’s performance in close games is only one piece of the puzzle. Another is poor base-running.

Just eight teams have seen their players caught stealing more often than the Mariners have been nailed. That doesn’t seem like such a big deal until you consider that every one of those eight clubs has successfully stolen anywhere from nine to FIFTY-TWO more bases than Seattle has.

In other words, no team in Major League Baseball has squandered as many opportunities, while failing to benefit on other occasions, than the Mariners have. Sure, runners for the Astros have been erased three more times than M’s runners, but the ‘stros also have two and a half times more successful steals to show for it.

Oh, and then there’s this: the M’s simply haven’t been able to really get hot. There was a stretch in April and May where they won series after series. But they followed that up with a disastrous stretch that saw them drop 15 of 20 games from June 3 and 23. So they essentially squandered nearly all the good fortune they’d accumulated in April and May in the span of three weeks. Things can unravel just that quickly.

Ever since, the club has been incapable of achieving anything resembling true momentum. They enjoyed a 7-2 homestand against three good teams in late June and early July, but have since lost five of six games on their current road trip. This is all a meandering way of saying that unless the M’s become scorching hot sometime in the next few weeks, this team is fucked.

Of course, some of these things, like bad luck in close games and on the basepaths can be overcome if a club is reasonably well-constructed and can stay healthy. On that latter point, the M’s have been anything but fortunate. The team has dealt with injuries to several starting pitchers, a slew of relievers and, at one point, its only two speedy position players. The M’s are simply not deep enough to withstand these sorts of setbacks.

To be fair, new GM Jerry Dipoto did a pretty admirable job adding talent over the winter. He remade the bullpen, added two starting pitchers and acquired both a durable veteran catcher (Chris Iannetta) and a defensive wiz to man center field (Leonys Martin). But the two starters have performed poorly, and the bullpen is overworked. Moreover, Dipoto was prohibited from adding any real difference-makers via trade because the M’s’ farm system is well below average.

If I’m being nice, the Mariners are in the bottom third of the league as far as minor league talent goes. A few years ago, their farm system was considered among the best. But something was clearly very wrong in the way they were developing players, because even those who did well in the minors seemed to hit a wall in the bigs. Worse yet, in most cases (Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Chris Taylor, Mike Zunino) once they hit that wall, they were never able to make the necessary adjustments to get over the hump.

That, coupled with a freak injury here and there (Danny Hultzen, you poor bastard) rendered a once esteemed farm system more or less barren of difference-making talent. A lack of such talent means that any trade acquisitions are going to be somewhat lacking; players past their primes or, at best, guys coming off bad years that teams have given up on. It’s not impossible to win with guys like that, but it’s pretty fucking difficult.

Now, it’d be one thing if the M’s lacked minor league impact players because their big league roster was loaded with good young players, but nothing could be further from the truth. On the offensive side, all they’ve got is Ketel Marte, who could potentially develop into an All Star shortstop, but is just as likely to be a replacement-level infielder. For pitching, there’s Taijuan Walker and his sky-high ceiling, but he has yet to put it all together and is currently on the DL. Edwin Diaz looks electric. But how many flame-throwing M’s relievers have either flamed out or were used as trade bait in mostly futile attempts to improve the team in other areas?

Baseball is flush with exciting young talent. If you randomly select a big league team, there’s an excellent chance they have at least one player who is in the early stages of a career that will feature multiple All Star seasons. Shit, the Red Sox have three position players between ages 23 and 26 who are starting this year’s mid-summer classic. (And it isn’t just that Boston players are over-hyped; Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley all deserve to be there.)

But while fans of teams like the Sox, Nationals, Dodgers, Mets, even the lowly Twins, can look forward to watching fantastic players for years to come, M’s’ fans are forced to admire this influx of youth from afar.

And that’s what’s so disconcerting about the 2016 Mariners- this is probably as good as it’s gonna get for the foreseeable future. In fact, with several of their best players either past their prime or damn close to it, things will probably be decidedly worse in 2017 and 2018.

So as I question the reasons for the Mariners’ mediocrity, I do so knowing that there’s a better than even money chance that I’ll be watching a team that’s something worse than mediocre a year or two from now. But, given the sorry state of their minor league system, at least I won’t have to wonder why they suck.

Well, I guess there’s our answer, and it’s a fairly common one. Why are the Mariners mediocre? For a host of reasons. Bad luck, bad decisions on the bases, an unsettling lack of depth that is probably gonna get worse before it gets before. I could go on. I will go on, in days to come. The only thing that feels certain is that a season that felt so promising just a month ago feels all but certain to end exactly like the past fourteen seasons have: with M’s players planning tee times in October.

 

 

Midterm Report: Grading the Mariners’ Offense

From 2010 to 2015, the Seattle Mariners’ offense could best be described as an abomination.

 

That may seem harsh on the surface, but consider these team batting average rankings for those seasons….

2010: 30th in MLB (dead last) (.236)

2011: 30th (.233)

2012: 30th (.234)

2013: 28th (.237)

2014: 23rd (.244)

2015: 23rd (.249) 

As you can see, I wasn’t kidding. The high water mark for the M’s in the past six seasons was breaking into the lower depths of the bottom third of the league. That’s a little depressing.

The 2016 season, however, has seen a noticeable uptick in offensive performance. Though the M’s sit just two games over .500, the offense has more than pulled its weight for the most part. They rank 12th in batting average (.262), 11th in on-base percentage (.328) and 5th in slugging (.442). This is a real offense.

There are still some significant shortcomings- a lack of success in base-stealing comes quickly to mind- but the Mariners are, for the first time in nearly a decade, capable of handing a lineup card to an umpire without shame.

Let us take a look at who has contributed, and who hasn’t. (Defensive contributions are factored in to grades.)

 

Robinson Cano- 2B: A 

His early season power surge has dissipated, but it’s extremely difficult to be critical of Robbie’s performance thus far. He ranks in the AL top ten in hits, home runs and RBI and has played characteristically strong defense at the keystone. His 3.7 WAR is already higher than his entire total for the 2015 season. If that’s not progress, I don’t know what is.

Even while his run production has dipped, his average has remained strong (he’s currently batting .302, good for 14th in the league). At age 33 and with seven more years on his contract, there will be bad years ahead. This, however, doesn’t look to be one of them.

 

Nelson Cruz- DH/OF: A-minus

Nellie isn’t gonna give you anything with the glove, but his bat has remained lethal. He’s tied for 3rd in the AL with 22 home runs and is tied for 5th in RBI. He’s always been an imposing power threat, but his batting average has now stayed relatively high for the second consecutive season. If you can live with his shit defense and high strikeout rate, there’s not a whole lot to complain about.

 

Kyle Seager- 3B: A-minus

I was actually gonna go lower until I dove into Seager’s stat line a bit more closely.

The 2009 3rd rounder is currently enjoying career highs in slugging and on-base percentage while playing Gold Glove-caliber D at third. He’s also quietly on pace to reach career bests in hits, doubles, homers, RBI and walks.

The only real knock on the guy is he seems destined to never hit for a high average. After batting between .259 and .268 in his first four full seasons (he’s at .277 right now), it seems unlikely that he’ll ever contend for batting titles. Nevertheless, a guy who can club 20-30 homers, drive in runs and hold it down at third is nothing to sneeze at. I think we’ll keep him.

 

Ketel Marte- SS: B-minus 

The 22-year-old Marte boasts a meager 0.4 WAR so far this season while sometimes providing undesired adventure at shortstop. Sadly, that makes him perhaps the best shortstop Seattle has had in about fifteen fucking years.

His average is an entirely adequate .267 and he can steal a handful of bases. But there are some red flags. The most jarring number is 9, as in 9 walks for the season. This, after he drew 24 free passes in 39 fewer plate appearances last season. Naturally this has resulted in a rather poor .293 OBP, and that’s simply not acceptable going forward.

Again, he’s young, and there’s plenty of room for growth. But I’m still taking a wait-and-see approach to Marte.

 

Nori Aoki- OF: F

I’d been a pretty big Aoki fan for the past couple of years, so you can imagine how pleased I was when the M’s signed him last winter. “He’s exactly what we needed!”, cheered Steve. A model of consistency at the dish (had batted between .285 and .288 in his first four seasons) who could make contact and steal bases. I may not have seen Aoki as a difference-maker, but I thought he was clearly the right kind of player. Which, as it turns out, was the wrong kind of thinking.

Whether it’s due to age (he’s 34) or just bad luck, Aoki has been horrible. So horrible, in fact, that he was optioned to Tacoma last week. This was done in part because the club desperately needed to add a pitcher, but it was mostly because Aoki has been pretty useless.

The Japanese import has suffered career-worst numbers pretty much across the board: batting average, OBP and slugging, while being on pace to shatter his season high in strikeouts. Oh, and this is fun, too: while Aoki had stolen 81 bases in 114 attempts from 2012 to 2015 (71%), he’s been caught in seven of eleven tries this year.

To make a long story short, Aoki has nosedived in just about every possible way. So what the hell do I know?

 

Leonys Martin- OF: B 

I’m going maybe a full letter grade higher than I otherwise would have because Martin is exactly the kind of athletically-gifted centerfielder the M’s have needed since Franklin Gutierrez‘s decline in health put his career in jeopardy five years ago. Yes, baseball is primarily about scoring runs, but it’s also about preventing them, and no one on the M’s roster prevents runs as effectively as Martin.

His offensive output leaves a lot to be desired; this is a guy who is batting .247 (a year after hitting .219 in Texas) after all. He’s also striking out at an alarming rate for a player of his profile. But his offense is not without merit. Martin has already established a new career high with 11 home runs, and aside from Marte, he’s the only stolen base threat on the team.

If he can cut down on his strikeouts and stay healthy, Martin should be an important and stabilizing part of the club for the next several years.

 

Seth Smith- OF: B-minus 

Eli Manning‘s former Ole Miss backup has been hot of late, seeing his average spike to .278 and reaching double digits in homers despite only playing about two thirds of his team’s games. His defense is lousy, but he’s a very real threat against right-handed pitching, forming a rather good corner outfield platoon with Guti.

 

Adam Lind- 1B/DH: C-minus 

I must say, I was expecting a little bit more. Given that he’s part of a platoon at first, Lind’s numbers aren’t awful- he’s hit 12 homers and driven in 36- but he just hasn’t really been able to get going. He’s further hurt by his shit defense at first (when the 34-year-old 300 pounder you platoon with is the superior defender, that’s not good).

All told, Lind has been a negative WAR player through the first half of the season. Maybe this is why Milwaukee let him go for next to nothing.

 

Franklin Gutierrez- OF: B-minus 

I went slightly higher on Guti’s grade in large measure because I’m somewhat amazed he’s still alive, much less that he’s provided some value. This poor son of a bitch has seen his career repeatedly threatened by freak injuries and horrific gastrointestinal injuries over the past half decade, yet he’s still standing…most of the time.

Once a truly outstanding centerfielder, Guti has had to settle for having a career at all rather than the career he seemed poised to have. I suspect that if his health had held up, he’d have four or five Gold Gloves by now. But then, things don’t always work out the way they appear they will. Just ask Grady Sizemore.

While he got off to a terrible start, Guti has evened out some. He’s no longer Death to Flying Things (we still miss you, Dave), but he’s a respectable defensive outfielder who, provided he isn’t overworked, can absolutely murder left-handed pitching.

 

Chris Iannetta- C: C-plus 

The best thing I can think so say is that Iannetta has met, though certainly hasn’t exceeded, expectations. Low batting average? Check. Occasional pop? Sure. Solid defense behind the plate? For the most part, yes.

What the M’s needed more than anything from Iannetta was for him to merely stay on the field and not embarrass himself. The club received worse production from the catcher position last season than perhaps any other team in the history of Major League Baseball. So that Iannetta has been able to start the vast majority of games and keep his average above .200 and hold his own defensively is good enough.

Former #3 overall pick Mike Zunino (he who started the bulk of games for that historically bad 2015 squad) is still, at best, a question mark. Iannetta has, if nothing else, given Zunino a year to try and figure shit out in the minors. Which I certainly appreciate after watching that olive oil-voiced motherfucker flail at pitches a foot out of the strike zone last year.

 

Dae-Ho Lee- 1B: A-minus 

The hope was that the 34-year-old former Korean and Japanese League star could mash lefties well enough to start 60 or so games. He’s been substantially better than that. Lee has actually hit right-handers a bit better than lefties, and as alluded to earlier, hasn’t been half bad defensively. In fact, I’m at a loss to criticize any area of his performance. He’s got a good average (.293), hits for power and doesn’t strike out much.

I suspect that if Lee were run out there 155 times in a season, his stat line would suffer somewhat. Fortunately, that’s not what’s expected of the big man.

Though I initially had my doubts (I believe my exact words during his first start were, “You suck, Dae-Ho Lee”), Lee has proven to be a useful part of the club and, without question, a fan favorite.

 

In Conclusion:

Alright, so it ain’t the 1927 Yankees….or, for that matter, even the 1987 Yankees, who were decidedly less special. But after believing for the past six years that a two run deficit in the 5th inning (or a two run deficit in any inning) was insurmountable, I can at least say that the outlook has improved. Now if the goddamn pitching can cooperate….