We Were Fated to Pretend

“Don’t get any big ideas/They’re not gonna happen.”

– Thom Yorke

Don’t let the standings fool you; the Seattle Mariners’ season may very well be over. 

 

 

I have a pretty good idea of how pessimistic that probably sounds. I mean, if the season ended today, the M’s would make the playoffs, blah, blah, blah, unfounded optimism, sunshine, lollipops, America’s best days are ahead of us. Sorry but this is not, as it’s presently constituted, a playoff team.

But I’m not one to offer up doom and gloom without evidence, so here you go…..

1. The bullpen isn’t as good as they’ve been to this point.

– If you had the M’s’ bullpen pegged as the best in baseball back in the spring, raise your hand. (Put your hand down, you fucking liar!) This group has been positively lights out, posting a league best ERA, confounding hitters and keeping the M’s in games they have no business remaining competitive in. That’s likely to take at least a modest hit.

As innings continue to pile up, as the games begin to take on greater meaning, it ought to be expected that at least a couple of the relievers will stumble. Especially if they continue to be overused as they have been since the break.

I’m not saying the bullpen is gonna crumble; just that it’s probably not gonna be the best in baseball down the stretch. And if the M’s are going back to the playoffs, it’ll have to be that and more because……

 

2. The offense is, sadly, every bit as bad as it’s been to this point.

– Had you asked me at the beginning of the season who I thought would feature the worst offense in the American League, you wouldn’t have even be finished asking your question before I shouted, “the Mariners!!”. There is nothing even remotely surprising about what I’m about to tell you…..

The M’s are batting .245 as a team, and sadly, that’s an improvement. From 2010 through 2013, the M’s’ team averages were .236, .233. .234 and .237, respectively. They’ve been dead last in batting among AL clubs four years running, and the only thing likely to keep that number from growing is a piss-poor Houston lineup that is presently hitting .239. As strong as the pitching has been, that just isn’t good enough.

To make matters worse, as poor as that batting average is, they’re even shittier at drawing walks and driving the ball, as they rank dead last in both on-base and slugging percentage. This is a team that often needs a whole lot to go right in order to eke out a win. And luck will only carry you so far for so long.

The M’s could do something to mitigate this deficiency at the trade deadline, but realistically speaking, how much good will that do? You think Marlon Byrd or Ben Zobrist is gonna suddenly make this a potent offense? Short of acquiring Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton, the M’s are easily gonna finish in the lower third among AL teams offensively.

When I look at a typical Mariner starting lineup, I see three guys that should actually be starting. Robinson Cano is obviously terrific, Kyle Seager is a joy, and Mike Zunino, though his contact rate and OBP are horrid, can at least clear the fences and, most importantly, is a very good defensive catcher. (When Michael Saunders is healthy, he’s the fourth worthy starter, but right now he isn’t, so….)

As for the rest? Brad Miller might be a good hitter someday, but right now he’s terrible. Logan Morrison should be coming off the bench instead of playing one of the most historically significant offensive positions. Dustin Ackley, his current hot streak notwithstanding, has spent the better part of the last three fucking years under-performing. Corey Hart ought to be, at best, the left-handed portion of a DH platoon, James Jones should be a bench guy and pinch runner, while Endy Chavez….you know, I’m just gonna stop right there.

 

3. September is a bitch.

– If I had to pick a winner for that second and final wildcard bid, I’d lean towards either the Yankees (because they’re fuckers) or the Indians (because they’ll spend the final month of the season battling inferior teams like the White Sox and Twins). Seattle’s September schedule is somewhat more intimidating.

Of their final 27 contests, a full two thirds of them are on the road. (Yes, the M’s have been better away than at home, but much like with the bullpen, that’s probably gotta give at some point.) Only seven of those twenty-seven contests are against this year’s divisional doormats, the Astros and Rangers, while a whopping thirteen of them are against the A’s and Angels.

Yeah, you read that right- nearly half of Seattle’s final 27 games will be against the two best teams in baseball. Not just the two best teams in their division- the two best in all of Major League Baseball. Are you fucking kidding me??

 

Soooooo yeah. A bullpen that’s been playing over their heads, an offense that is arguably the worst in the American League, and a positively brutal final month of the season. No, I can’t exactly say I’ve got real fucking high hopes of seeing Felix finally pitch in the postseason.

But to those of you who will say I’m being overly pessimistic…well, I’ll mostly hold my tongue. But here’s what I will say……

Could the Mariners make the playoffs? Yeah, of course they could. Will they? Oh, hell no.

The Price Is Wrong, Bitch, er, Andrew!

With two weeks to go until the July 31 trading deadline, things are beginning to get interesting. The most coveted piece, should his club make him available, is Tampa Bay left-hander David Price.

 

 

So far as trade bait goes, it doesn’t get a whole lot more enticing than Price. A 6’6″ southpaw very much in his prime, Price has already snagged one Cy Young Award, and is a decent bet to add another before all is said and done. He leads the AL in strikeouts and innings, and walks practically nobody. Oh and he’s got a good amount of big-game experience, having pitched in four separate postseasons. Shall we start the bidding at….every fucking thing you’ve got? Pretty much, yeah. And that’s (the biggest reason) why I’d be reluctant to trade for him.

In most years, this wouldn’t make a damn bit of difference to me- I’m a Mariners’ fan first, a Mets’ fan second. In other words, I haven’t thought a whole lot about pennant races in the last decade or so. But this year has been a little bit different. The Mets are still horrible, but somehow the Mariners have positioned themselves to be a player down the stretch. They presently sit at 51-44.

That’s only good for third in the rugged AL West, but it does slot the M’s in to that second and final AL wildcard spot. Here at the break, they command a slim lead over several other contenders- they’re two and a half games ahead of the Royals and Jays; three and a half up on the Yankees and Indians.

Given their status as surprising contenders, the M’s have been mentioned in myriad trade rumors, up to and including those involving the esteemed Mr. Price. In fact, it’s been suggested that the M’s are in discussions with the Rays and their amazing, wonderful, terrific GM Andrew Friedman to acquire not just Price, but also second baseman/shortstop/corner outfielder/oil tycoon/amateur astronomer Ben Zobrist.

That sounds terrific, until you remember that teams generally want something in return when they offer you two good baseball players. And if what I’ve heard is correct, the Rays may want a whole hell of a lot in exchange for Price and Zobrist.

Let’s start with the obvious: if this trade happens, Taijuan Walker is history. That he’s easily one of the ten top prospects in all of baseball makes his inclusion alone difficult to swallow. But hey, David Price, right? Trouble is, we’re just getting started. Provided the two clubs agree to a swap, it would be reasonable to expect the deal to cost the M’s Walker, infielders Brad Miller and Nick Franklin, plus a couple of other higher-end prospects. It’s also not beyond the realm of possibility that the Rays would demand 2013 first round pick DJ Peterson, who has spent the past year torching several levels of minor league pitching.

But let’s say we get to keep Peterson, and the Price/Zobrist tandem costs the M’s Walker, Miller, Franklin, a major league reliever, and, say, Gabby Guerrero and Victor Sanchez. Even if I could wrap my head around surrendering that much talent, there are other reasons why I couldn’t bring myself to make the move.

 

1. Price would essentially be a rental.

– When Price was mentioned in trade talks before the season started, it was rumored that, while he would be open to discussing a contract extension with certain clubs, the Mariners would not be one of them. That isn’t to say that there’s no way he would re-up with the M’s, but that makes it a hell of a lot more dicey.

Besides, the Mariners are cheap bastards. They made their luxury purchases (Cano‘s contract, Felix‘s extension), but seem hellbent on keeping the payroll at or below $100 million. With Cano and the King accounting for half of that, it’s highly unlikely that the M’s would look to give Price a similar deal. You COULD have a $95 million payroll in which three dudes make all but $20 million, but that doesn’t leave very much room to do anything else. Is it worth mortgaging the farm for a little over one year of David Price? I really don’t believe so. Especially since this is always a possibility…….

 

2. What if Price never even gets on the field?

– Okay, so you’ve got a guy under contract for a year and two months. However unlikely this may be, let’s say that, in one of his first several starts for the M’s, Price gets hurt, and, like practically every goddamn pitcher in the game lately, needs Tommy John surgery. Now, the recovery from that would be, oh let’s see, pretty much exactly the length of his contract.

Yes, that’s a nightmare scenario. But it’s a plausible one. If this deal goes down, then Price ends up needing ligament replacement surgery, it could make the 2008 Erik Bedard deal look like a happy memory. (That was the one where the M’s dealt, among others, Adam Jones and Chris Tillman to the Orioles for Bedard. It was a move made by a Mariners’ team with a GM with job security issues; a win now at the expense of the future move. Maybe that sounds familiar.)

Zobrist is a unique talent, but he’s also 33 and his decline has commenced. Without a healthy Price in the mix, this is a trade that would be beyond disastrous for the M’s. And while I don’t believe that one should allow fear to dictate these sorts of moves, elbow injuries have become enough of an epidemic that such fears are quite rational.

 

3. Price ain’t exactly Curt Schilling.

– Have you looked at Price’s postseason numbers? They’re not pretty. He was quite effective coming out of the bullpen as a rookie during the 2008 ALCS and World Series, but his subsequent four starts were…well, not good. In those outings, Price has pitched 26.1 innings, allowing 17 earned runs on 33 hits.

This is really a comparatively minor concern, as Price could very well dominate this October. I merely mean to make it clear that, to this point, he hasn’t done the Rays any favors in the playoffs. At a time of year in which the majority of aces are at their best, Price has yet to do so.

 

In conclusion:

If I were Jack Zduriencik….well if I were Jack, the first thing I would do is buy some new glasses. Maybe spend some time at the gym, go for that Michael Chiklis in The Shield look…the ladies would notice, that’s all I’m sayin’….

But anyway, if I’m Zduriencik, I’m very reluctant to make this deal. True, we don’t yet know exactly what the Rays want, but it’s gonna be a lot. If I’m emptying the chamber, I’m only doing so to acquire guys named Stanton or Trout; guys who more ably fill serious needs and, just as importantly, are far better bets to stay healthy and productive.

I’m not guaranteeing a calamity if this trade happens. Maybe the M’s get Price, and he helps propel them to the World Series. I can’t believe I just typed that in mid-July, but that’s not beyond the realm of possibility. But, like much of the cast of Star Wars before me, I’ve got a bad feeling about this……

 

Get After It

Entering today’s action, the Seattle Mariners have a one and a half game lead for the American League’s second wildcard spot. So why does it feel like the season is teetering on the brink of disaster?

 

 

Over their last seven ballgames, the M’s have scored a total of nine runs. That they won two of those seven might represent a small miracle. They’ve found all kinds of ways to not put runs on the board- being shut down by great pitchers (Chris Sale), decent pitchers (Phil Hughes), and pitchers I’ve never heard of (Yohan Pino??).

Most alarming were the three straight losses to the Twins. Not only did they come against a lousy team trotting out pretty ordinary arms, they repeatedly failed to cash in on opportunities. In those three games, the M’s recorded 32 hits, but netted just three runs. There are gonna be nights in which you gets guys on base, and just can’t bring them home, but you hope to God it doesn’t happen three games in a row, with a series against the best team in baseball looming.

Ah yes, the best team in baseball. That would be the Oakland Athletics, the team that MLB.com estimates has a 99% chance of making the playoffs. They’ll be in town for a three game set beginning tonight. And while the M’s have lined it up so that they can throw their three best pitchers at them, it might not be enough. Let’s see, we couldn’t cash in off of some mediocre pitchers for the Twins; yeah, I can’t really say I’ve got high fucking hopes about putting up crooked numbers against the best staff in the game.

Should the red hot A’s come into town and sweep the Mariners, it’s not the end of the world. But it could be if something isn’t done about this limp dick offense that Seattle is relying on.

A lot has been made about manager Lloyd McClendon‘s decision to push Felix Hernandez’s start back one day so he could face the A’s instead of the Twins. And while I’m not thrilled that we used yesterday’s game as a nine inning bullpen start, that’s not why the M’s are on the brink of something bad. It’s all about the hitting.

Last night’s game was a pretty good example of why the Mariners can’t score runs. The top four hitters in their lineup (Endy Chavez, James Jones, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager) reached base a total of eleven times. Their five through nine hitters reached three times. Total.

Getting meaningful contributions from the middle of the lineup has been a struggle all season, and that’s largely what has killed the club recently. Perhaps the biggest drag of late has been designated hitter Corey Hart. Last night’s game will not be one the former All Star will want to remember. Twice he stepped to the plate with the bases loaded. Twice he failed to drive in a run. He did get a (meaningless) single later in the game, but any time you strand a half dozen runners, you’re gonna come away disappointed.

It isn’t all Hart’s fault, of course. Dustin Ackley has, yet again, been a colossal disappointment. The former #2 overall draft pick, the can’t-miss hitter, is….missing. A lot. He’s batting .229 with a paltry .627 OPS. It’s almost a carbon copy of his disastrous 2012 season (.226 average, .622 OPS), and that, to put it mildly, is not acceptable.

Also falling into the offensive detriment camp have been shortstop Brad Miller (.205/.604) and, to a lesser extent, catcher Mike Zunino (.210 average, 96 strikeouts), though at least the latter earns his keep by playing great defense and driving the ball on those rare occasions when he makes contact.

After all that, you might be inclined to think that I’m waving the white flag on a 2014 season that felt so promising just a week ago. Not true. But what I am saying is that, without at least one significant upgrade to the lineup, this team is in trouble, wildcard standings be damned.

Here’s what I think is the best-case scenario should the M’s stand pat at the trade deadline- they hold on for that second wildcard spot, start Felix in the one game playoff, win, and get dispatched in the Division Series. I can’t believe I’m saying this about a franchise that hasn’t so much as sniffed the playoffs in more than a decade, but that’s not good enough. Any team that’s in the hunt at this point ought to have at least a small chance to win the whole fucking thing, and right now, I just can’t bring myself to believe that.

As previously stated, Zunino has real value, and I have no desire to see him relegated to the bench. Same with Miller, who I genuinely believe will be more productive going forward. (Granted, if my wildest dreams came true, and the M’s could snag Troy Tulowitzki, then fuck Miller.) But Ackley and Hart are clear detriments, and their positions ought to be upgraded at the deadline. (If adding outfield depth wasn’t a priority before, it sure as hell should be now, as Michael Saunders is out for the foreseeable future.)

My wishlist included Phillies outfielder Marlon Byrd, Twins OF/DH Josh Willingham, and any number of Tampa Bay Rays, namely Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce. Byrd and Willingham are both right-handed bats with power (enormous needs), while Zobrist is a switch hitter with true versatility. Joyce is a lefty, but a DH platoon of Joyce and Hart could potentially work. (Byrd has Seattle listed as part of his limited no-trade clause, but hey, that’s why pencils have erasers!). If I personally got to choose, I’d go for Byrd and Zobrist.

Good pitching is a wonderful thing to have, but it means very little if your offense can’t put runs on the board. We may relearn that lesson over the next three days. If the M’s are serious about making a push this season (and given their place in the standings, why the hell wouldn’t they be?), they’re gonna need to part with a few pieces in order to acquire some bats. We deserve meaningful September baseball. Let’s do this.

2014 National League Mid-Season Awards

Ah yes, the Senior Circuit. Let’s just do this….

 

 

Most Valuable Player: I have no fucking idea…..um….how ’bout….uh….Jonathan Lucroy-C Milwaukee Brewers

– Of all my picks thus far, this is the one I absolutely expect to change by the end of the season, even though there aren’t exactly any breakout candidates. For the time being though, Lucroy is probably the guy. He’s batting .327 with a .908 OPS for a (checks standings) first place Brewers team?? Yeah, I didn’t see that one coming. He also provides excellent defense behind the dish, as he already has a 1.0 dWAR rating for the year.

There are plenty of guys who could step up to claim the award when all is said and done. They include Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams, Dodgers outfield phenom Yasiel Puig, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates.

There is another tier of players that have the stats, but play on bad teams. At the top of this list is Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo leads the league in batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS and OPS+. Sounds like a slam dunk, right? Not really. Not only are the Rockies terrible (they presently sit 14 games under .500), but Tulowitzki is doing nearly all his damage in hitter-friendly Coors Field. At home, he carries a .433 average and a ridiculous 1.281 OPS. On the road, those numbers shrink to .265 and .830; still solid, but hardly exceptional. So basically he’s steroid era Barry Bonds at Coors, and fairly ordinary away from home. Unless hit bats .400 or clubs 75 home runs, there’s no way a player on a bad team with these kinds of splits deserves any real consideration.

Joining Tulo in the, “Yeah, your numbers rock, but your team is shit” column are the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton and Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt.

 

Cy Young Award: Adam Wainwright-RHP St. Louis Cardinals

– Waino has twice been a Cy Young runner-up, and finished third on another occasion. This could certainly be the year he finally takes home the trophy. He leads the NL with a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, and also leads the pack in complete games, ERA+, FIP and home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. (His won-lost record is 11-4, if you’re into that sort of thing.)

Of course at least part of the reason that Wainwright is the current favorite is that two-time winner Clayton Kershaw missed the first five weeks of the season with a back ailment. By the end of September, he may very well have the credentials to claim his third trophy. All Kershaw has done since returning is go 10-2 with a 0.870 WHIP, while hurling a no-hitter and striking out nearly a dozen batters per nine. Jesus!

Honorable mention goes to the Reds’ duo of Johnny Cueto (totally expected) and Alfredo Simon (totally unexpected). But let’s be honest here- barring catastrophic injury, this award is going to either Kershaw or Wainwright.

 

Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton-OF Cincinnati Reds

– The rookie center fielder is hitting .281 with a respectable .737 OPS, but he needs to learn patience (only 16 walks in 342 plate appearances). Of course, Hamilton’s real value is in his legs. While a minor leaguer in 2012, he stole 155 bases (not a typo). He’s got 37 swipes this year, though he has been caught a league-high 13 times. Rickey Henderson‘s record is safe for now, but this is Hamilton’s award to lose.

Why am I so convinced Hamilton will win? Well, the rest of the field isn’t exactly imposing. The next closest competitors are probably the Arizona duo of shortstop Chris Owings (.277 average, .771 OPS) and right-hander Chase Anderson (6-4 record, 3.64 ERA in ten starts). There’s no question that nearly all the top rookies for 2014 hail from the AL.

 

Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke- Milwaukee Brewers

– Nobody, not even Bob Uecker, expected the Brew Crew to be leading their division in July. That they’re doing it despite a below average year from the, uh, suddenly less musclebound Ryan Braun makes it all the more remarkable. That said, the wheels may be coming off- the Brewers have lost five in a row and nine of their last ten- and the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates are hot on their heels. So while this is Roenicke’s award for the first half, I highly doubt he’ll be in a position to actually win it.

For the moment, his most likely challengers might be Miami’s Mike Redmond and Cincinnati’s Bryan Price. Redmond had a hard enough task to begin with, but that the Marlins have hung around .500 despite losing ace Jose Fernandez is one hell of an accomplishment. Price, in his first season in charge, has done quite well with a Reds team that perhaps ranks third among NL Central clubs in overall talent. As the Reds have a better chance than the Brewers or Marlins of remaining competitive, I’d probably give Price the best odds of winning.

But if I’m being entirely truthful, part of me wants to give the award to the Mets’ Terry Collins for resisting the urge to kill himself for having to manage the Mets.

2014 American League Mid-Season Awards

As we near the All Star Break, it’s not unreasonable to begin thinking about who might take home top honors at season’s end. Yes, there’s a long way to go, but the pieces are beginning to fall into place.

 

 

In any case, we can, at the very least, discuss the best of the best from the first half. Today, ol’ Ban Johnson‘s American League. Aaaaand let’s go to the videotape……

 

Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout-OF LA Angels

– This could be the year. Following two seasons of playing second banana to Miguel Cabrera, Trout is well-positioned to snag his first MVP award. The Millville Meteor leads the AL with a .992 OPS, and projects to reach career highs in home runs, runs batted in and doubles. His .303 average is a little lower than usual, but still outstanding. Amazingly, he’s only been intentionally walked once, which solidifies what I’ve long suspected- the intelligence of managers is somewhat overstated.

There are certainly other worthy candidates. Nelson Cruz has been putting up ridiculous numbers for a contending Orioles team, and has Edwin Encarnacion for the surprising Blue Jays. One could make a solid case for Detroit’s Victor Martinez, but for a DH to win the award, he’d best blow away the competition statistically. And then there’s always Miggy, who is quietly putting together another fantastic season.

A couple of sleepers dwell in the Pacific Northwest. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are carrying pretty much the entire offensive load for a Mariners team that is somehow right in the thick of things. If they end up making the playoffs, one or both of these fellows ought to be in the MVP conversation.

 

Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez-R Seattle Mariners 

In the final weeks of the 2012 US Presidential Election, the more irresponsible news outlets (you know, pretty much all of ’em) presented the race as a dead heat. But if you looked at the numbers, it really wasn’t. For now at least, the same could be said for the American League Cy Young race- it’s not nearly as close as you might think.

There are a number of AL pitchers who are currently enjoying sensational seasons, but King Felix stands above them all. He’s leading the league in ERA, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), WHIP, and home runs per nine innings pitched. His ten wins place him in a fourth place tie among AL hurlers, he’s third in strikeouts, and opposing hitters are batting a mere .201 against him.

If you’ve watched him in awe at some point over the last six years or so, you might be frightened to know that he’s enjoying a career year thus far, putting up personal bests in virtually every category, including ERA, WHIP, walks per nine, strikeouts per nine, hits per nine, and home runs allowed. He tends to drop off towards the end of the season, so it would be unreasonable to expect him to keep it up. But given how spectacular the King has been to this point, even a slightly above average second half could help him land his second Cy Young.

If someone does snatch the award from Felix’s grasp, the most likely candidates are Chris Sale, Garrett Richards and, provided his elbow injury isn’t severe, Masahiro Tanaka. That trio is putting up ridiculous numbers of their own, making this one of the greatest years for AL pitchers in recent memory. It would also be foolish to sleep on Mark Buehrle, David Price, Scott Kazmir and Yu Darvish. Any member of that group could vault to the front of the pack with a stellar second half.

 

Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu-1B ChiSox and Masahiro Tanaka-RHP NY Yankees (tie)

– I’d been resigned to Tanaka taking home the hardware for months now, but Abreu just won’t go away. And with Tanaka going to the DL, Abreu may now even be the front-runner.

The Cuban first baseman is currently second the the AL with a whopping 27 home runs but he also ranks fourth in OPS and RBI, while leading the league with an intimidating .619 slugging percentage. I thought perhaps he was exploiting his hitter-friendly home park, but while his average is higher at US Cellular or whatever the fuck they call that place now, the majority of his long balls have come on the road. He’s just real friggin’ good.

Tanaka, for his part, has been a beast. His recent struggles aside, his numbers are more than impressive. The rookie hurler is leading the AL in wins, and his ERA (2.51), WHIP (1.01) and strikeout totals (145 in 136.1 IP) are terrific. I doubt he’ll be quite as dominant once teams have seen him a few times, but even a Tanaka at 75% of what he’s been thus far is terrifying.

The only other player worthy of any consideration is Houston’s George Springer, who has been knocking the holy fuck out the ball since being recalled from Triple-A. He ranks second among AL rookies in HR and RBI, but his average is poor (.235) and he’s striking out at a ridiculous rate (a league-leading 109 times in just 73 games!!).

 

Manager of the Year: Lloyd McClendon- Seattle Mariners

– If the Jays somehow stay in it and win the East (they won’t), this award will belong to Toronto’s John Gibbons. I think compelling cases could also be made for Kansas City’s Ned Yost, Baltimore’s Buck Showalter, Oakland’s Bob Melvin and the Angels’ Mike Scioscia. But if the Mariners even come close to making the playoffs, it ought to go to McClendon.

The former Tigers hitting coach and Pirates skipper has helped lead the M’s to a level of relevance I though next to impossible back in the spring. Seattle currently sits eight games over .500, and is a couple games up for the final wild card berth. It’s difficult to imagine that continuing, but that the M’s are in this position with such a deplorable offense is remarkable. I should also point out that, while the pitching has been incredible, the M’s had three fifths of their starting pitchers on the DL back in April. Lloyd has done a good job platooning players to get the best matchups possible, and most of all, deserves a ton of credit for not overworking a bullpen that has somehow been the very best in the league.

 

 

For Your Consideration: Kyle Seager, All Star

For the past couple of years, Mariners’ third baseman Kyle Seager has been among the best-kept secrets in all of Major League Baseball.

 

 

It surely “helps” that he plays in Seattle; for a team that has under-performed for more than a decade. Other than Robinson Cano, who spent the first nine years of his career with the decidedly not-under-the-radar Yankees, and Felix Hernandez, who is an absolute fucking god, no one on the M’s’ roster has exactly become a household name. And while Seager will probably never reach the heights of those two gentlemen, he could (and absolutely should) be joining them on this season’s American League All Star team.

A 2009 third round choice out of the University of North Carolina (where his teammates included #2 overall pick Dustin Ackley), Seager scorched minor league pitching before getting the call to the majors midway through the 2011 season. He mostly struggled, but also went on something of a mini-tear that August. Still, he entered the 2012 season as the odd man out. Ackley was settled in as the starting second baseman (Seager’s natural position), and Chone Figgins was manning third base. But an Opening Day shoulder injury to left fielder Mike Carp created an opening. Figgins was moved to left, with Seager leaving the bench to start at the hot corner. Carp returned some weeks later, but Seager never surrendered his starting job.

Seager batted a modest .259 in that, his first full season, but added 20 homers, 86 RBI and 13 steals. On an admittedly lousy club, he became the M’s’ best hitter at age 24. And while Seager’s sophomore campaign was pretty similar (.260 average, 22 HR, but just 69 RBI), he just may have turned the corner in 2014.

Following this afternoon’s 5-2 victory over Houston, Seager is batting a career-high .283, with 13 long balls and 59 RBI. In all three Triple Crown stats, he’s ranked second among AL third basemen. He also ranks second in doubles (21), on-base percentage (.355), and slugging (.500). He places third among AL 3B in hits (86), is fourth in walks, and tied for first in triples. All this while playing above average, run-saving defense at third.

But perhaps Seager’s most eye-popping numbers are those he has put up at home. It’s no secret that Safeco Field has often been death to hitters. Other than the legendary Edgar Martinez, the singles-happy Ichiro and the (allegedly) steroid-addled A-Rod, few have ever really been plus performers at the Safe. Even likely future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, who has raked in Los Angeles, Boston and Arlington, was thoroughly ordinary offensively in his five seasons as a Mariner.

Yet Seager, historically a far better hitter on the road, has been absolutely torrid at home this season. In 41 games played in the Emerald City, he’s batting .357 with 11 homers, 38 runs driven in and a staggering 1.082 OPS. Those are tremendous numbers anywhere, much less in one of the most challenging parks for hitters in all of baseball.

(It needs to be said that a large factor in Seager’s development this season has been the presence of Cano. By both batting ahead of him in the lineup and as a mentor of sorts, the soon-to-be six-time All Star appears to have been a godsend for the young third baseman. The recent emergence of rookie outfielder James Jones, who pretty much came out of nowhere, has also contributed heavily to Seager’s success. As of late, when Seager has stepped to the plate, there have been ducks on the pond. And it seems like he’s constantly sending them home.) 

All that said, there are at least two reasons why Seager making the All Star team feels like a 50-50 proposition: there are several deserving third basemen, and he plays for the Mariners.

To the first point, Oakland’s Josh Donaldson is more the likely going to start (and, his low batting average aside, deservedly so). But then you’ve also got Beltre, who, through a combination of excellent numbers and a depleted Rangers’ roster, seems like a lock as well. So really it’ll likely come down a footrace between Seager and Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria. (Tampa has been terrible this season, so I guess it’s possible that Longo makes it by virtue of being their lone representative. But David Price, provided he’s still a Ray come mid-July, is far more deserving.)

Traditionally, being a Mariner will cost you because nobody pays any fucking attention to the Mariners. That could still play a role in Seager getting snubbed, but I think that it may have more to do with a numbers game. Both Felix and Cano are mortal locks to represent the AL next month, and closer Fernando Rodney (who currently leads the league in saves) seems like a shoo-in as well. The 2014 Mariners are good, but will the coaches and players decide that they’re worthy of having four All Star representatives?

Of course I don’t know the answer to that last question, but I vehemently believe that it would be very difficult to justify leaving Seager off the team. He’s just been too damn impressive to be denied. There’s always been something special about seeing one of your players make their first All Star team, and for the man several of the local Mariner-centric websites affectionately call Boss, this should be that moment.