Speculating on the Class of 2013

This could get messy. Earlier today, the 37 man 2013 Hall of Fame ballot was released. It contains 24 first timers and 13 holdovers from previous years. What makes this ballot so significant is the inclusion of three of the most controversial candidates ever: Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Roger Clemens.

If the last few years are any indication, any of the three garnering the necessary 75% of votes for induction appears slim. Several megastars, including Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro haven’t come close. Nevertheless, the achievements of Bonds and Clemens far exceed what Mac and Palmeiro were able to accomplish. (It should also be noted that while Sosa has never, to my knowledge, tested positive, there is ample circumstantial evidence that he was juicing. Just sayin’, I doubt anybody would bet their life that Sosa was clean.)

As previously noted, admissions of PED use have historically worked against candidates. In fact, even players without positive tests (or, for that matter, any credible suspicions) have failed to make the cut- Jeff Bagwell comes immediately to mind. Considering that the Baseball Writers’ Association of America are about as predictable as a sunrise, I would be shocked if this trend didn’t continue. Long story short, Bonds and Clemens are probably long shots.

My personal belief is that, while players linked to PED use shouldn’t be excluded from real consideration, they should probably be made to wait a little while. In other words, I would not place Bonds or Clemens on my ballot this year (if I had one). I might consider it in subsequent years, but not right now.

What I do have a problem with is the Bagwells of the world being denied, ostensibly because they had the misfortune of being power hitters in the steroid era. If we continue to exclude guys like Bagwell and first year eligible Mike Piazza, where do we draw the line?  Do we snub Ken Griffey, Jr., a guy never suspected by anyone to be juicing, when he’s eligible, because he was a product of the same era? Because that would be ridiculous.

No matter what happens, there will be ample controversy. If Bonds, Sosa and Clemens don’t make it, some will be outraged. If one or more of them do make the cut, there will be even more outrage concerning that. Basically, the BBWAA is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

In case you were wondering, here’s what my ballot would look like, inductees listed alphabetically……

1. Jeff Bagwell 

– I think I’ve explained why. Bagwell was an excellent all-around player who remained a viable MVP candidate for virtually his entire career. His 449 career home runs are a little low by modern standards, but he was a .297 hitter with a career on-base percentage north of .400. He even managed to swipe 202 bases, a rather high total for a power hitting first baseman.

2. Craig Biggio

– It’s only right that Bagwell and Biggio enter the Hall together. The Seton Hall product tallied 3,060 hits, which should be enough in and of itself. To further pad his resume, Biggio began as a catcher before becoming a perennial Gold Glove winner as a second baseman, stole more than 400 bases and scored 1,844 runs. There’s no excuse to exclude him. Given his career numbers and the lack of steroid accusations, he may be the most likely to be elected.

3. Edgar Martinez

– Call me a homer if you wish, but this man is a Hall of Famer. He was arguably the greatest right handed hitter of his era and has career batting and on-base averages of .312 and .418 respectively. Edgar also won two batting titles and was a seven time All Star.

Owing to the fact that he didn’t break in to the majors until age 27, Edgar’s lifetime numbers are somewhat lacking (309 home runs, 2,247 hits), but that’s actually not his biggest obstacle to induction. That would be his status as a designated hitter. As I’ve said before, if it’s a legitimate position, it’s insane to keep the best ever at said position out of the Hall. The DH has been a staple of AL baseball for nearly 40 years. It’s time to start acting like it.

4. Jack Morris

– He’s come pretty close in recent years, but Morris may have to wait a while longer considering how strong the 2013 class is. That said, his credentials are nearly as intimidating as he was as a pitcher, most notably his 254 career wins. His ERA is a little on the high side, but Morris was perhaps the most successful starting pitcher of the 1980s, and was a straight up workhorse, exceeding 230 innings pitched eleven times.

5. Mike Piazza

– His peers in terms of offensive output for catchers are named Berra and Bench. That’s it. Any questions?

6. Tim Raines

– Other than some guy named Henderson, Raines was the most prolific base stealer of his era, and was an excellent hitter to boot (he was a .294 career hitter). He’s earned it.

7. Lee Smith

– Though not nearly as maligned as DH’s, it’s been a long hard road out of hell for closers to receive their due. Smith was one of the best. In fact, I would argue that until the arrivals of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, Smith was the best. His 478 career saves were a record for quite some time, and very few stoppers have struck fear in the hearts of opposing hitters the way he did.

(I also considered Curt Schilling and Fred McGriff, before opting to exclude them- this time anyway.)

So Long, Asshole

Washington State University doesn’t mean a damn thing to me. It’s not that I dislike the school, I’m just indifferent, whether we’re talking about its academics or its athletics. But despite this indifference, the WSU football team has been so shitty for so many years, that I occasionally get a little angry. It’s one thing to lose, but when you’re losing, like, 55-3 every goddamn week, you might want to rethink this whole football thing. 

 

Is this anger irrational? Of course it is. As I said, I don’t care one way or the other about WSU, and getting angry about college football, a sport that I don’t even particularly like, is probably stupid anyway. So if I get pissed off about WSU’s performance, just imagine how I feel when the subject is one I’m actually invested in- like the Mariners. 

 

Last night it was announced that utility man Chone Figgins was designated for assignment. This means the M’s have ten days to either trade, release or outright Figgins (I’d like to wager a nickel on “release”). Our regional nightmare is over!

 

First thing’s first: the title of this piece is insanely harsh. I don’t really think Figgins is an asshole per se. To his credit (I guess), he wasn’t really a distraction the past couple years. You might (very reasonably) argue that a guy getting paid $9 million a year to do almost nothing shouldn’t be given a parade for not being a dick, but this assertion ignores the pride and ego of your average Major League Baseball player. 

 

Nearly every dude in the league, even the ones at the end of the bench, were the best player on every team they were on from tee ball up through high school or college. It can’t be an easy thing to be thought of, by yourself and others, as a total bad-ass, only to find out that you can’t really cut it at the highest level. Now just imagine that, not only were you that bad-ass your whole life, you were also one of the better players on a number of very good Angels teams over the first eight years of your MLB career. Good enough to warrant a four year, $36 million free agent contract. And then you played like complete shit, going from an everyday player to the last guy off the bench in essentially the blink of an eye. So again, I do give Figgins credit for not completely flipping the fuck out. But there’s still that whole baseball thing…..

 

2009 (with the Angels): 158 games, .298 average, .395 OBP, 101 BB (led the league), 183 hits, 42 stolen bases.

 

2010 (first year with Seattle): 161 games, .259 average, .340 OBP, 74 BB, 156 hits, 42 SB

 

2011: 81 games, .188 avg., .241 OBP, 21 BB, 54 hits, 11 SB

 

2012: 66 games, .181 avg., .262 OBP, 19 BB, 30 hits, 4 SB

 

The most frustrating part of the Figgins experiment was actually completely beyond his control: the stubborn refusal of the Mariners organization to admit that they fucked up- that you can’t squeeze blood from a stone (or a turnip, if you prefer). For reasons known only to the team, they decided to move Figgins from third to second base in his inaugural season in Seattle. It was a disappointing year statistically- though it would seem like a happy memory compared to what happened the following two seasons. 

 

In 2011, Figgins was moved back to third, in hopes that returning to his comfort zone would reignite his bat. It didn’t. He was far worse than in 2010, and by mid-season, was relegated to the bench before being injured in August.

 

The 2012 season brought with it a change that the M’s hoped would resurrect Figgins’ career: a move back to his old leadoff spot, because fuck it, I guess. To accommodate this, Ichiro was moved to third in the lineup, a disaster exceeded only by Figgins’ performance at the top of the order. By May, Figgins was back to the bench, and that’s pretty much where he stayed unless it was absolutely necessary to get him in the game. 

 

So there you have it- three seasons, a .227 batting average, and nearly as many strikeouts as hits. If that’s not $36 million well spent, I don’t know what is. This is why the best thing I, or any rational fan, can think of to say when eulogizing Figgins’ career in Seattle is “Well, at least he didn’t complain too much.” 

 

Now that he’s someone else’s problem, Figgins joins a relatively short list of somewhat heralded players that completely sucked as Mariners- a list that includes such notable fuck-ups as Jeff Cirillo, Richie Sexson, Erik Bedard and Scott Spiezio. 

 

Maybe the M’s will put together another losing campaign in 2013, but at least they won’t have a supermassive black hole on the 25 man roster (they had two actually- Munenori Kawasaki was, more or less, a cheerleader who was issued a uniform). The only real down side is that now we have to find a new least favorite Mariner, because we won’t have Figgins to kick around anymore. But neither will opposing pitchers. And that’s something we should be thankful for.

 

The Alternate Routes of David Price and R.A. Dickey

No one in the world is shocked that Tampa Bay southpaw David Price won the American League Cy Young Award. Price, the #1 overall pick in 2007 out of Vanderbilt, was seen as the total package: a big (6’7″) lefty with a plus fastball is, after all, every MLB team’s ultimate fantasy.

 

Barely a year removed from the Draft, Price was up in the big leagues, and just a month later, he was pitching out of Tampa’s bullpen in the postseason. He was runner-up to Felix Hernandez for the 2010 Cy Young, then endured an inconsistent 2011 season. But Price put it all together this past year, edging out defending Cy winner (and MVP) Justin Verlander for the honors.

 

While it’s true that being the top pick is hardly a guarantee of greatness, it’s equally accurate to say that a player is in that position for a reason: he’s considered the best bet to ascend the mountaintop. And Price has done just that.

 

Everyone in the world is shocked that New York Mets right hander R.A. Dickey won the National League Cy Young Award. He too was a first round pick (18th overall in 1996), but he didn’t log any serious MLB service time until 2004 with the Rangers. Between 2006 and 2010, he was signed (and eventually cut) by the Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners and the Mets.

 

Following an impressive April for the Mets Triple-A affiliate, Dickey was called up to Queens, where he enjoyed (at that time) his greatest big league success- a record of 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA. Like Price, Dickey dipped a bit in 2011, only to come roaring back in 2012. How good was he? He reached career highs in virtually every statistical category, won 20 games (the first Met to do so since Frank Viola in 1990), and led the NL in starts, complete games, innings pitched and strikeouts. At 37 years of age.

 

(Interesting side note about Dickey’s Cy Young: it made him the first Met to win a major award since Dwight Gooden won the Cy Young way back in 1985. No one in the team’s history has ever captured the MVP, and nobody’s won Rookie of the Year since Darryl Strawberry and Gooden did so in 1983 and 1984 respectively. Christ, they haven’t even had a Manager of the Year recipient! For a team that’s made a handful of playoff appearances over that span, I find that lack of hardware rather surprising. And a little embarrassing. Over that same time period, the Mariners, who have never made it past the ALCS, have had two MVP’s- Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro, two Cy Young winners- Randy Johnson and Felix, and two RoY winners. Not to mention Lou Piniella‘s two Manager of the Year awards.)

 

What I feel this Price-Dickey juxtaposition illustrates is what’s most frustrating/beautiful about baseball: its staggering unpredictability. In spite of the considerable economic disparity in the game, it’s the only major sport in which almost any individual player can attain greatness. Whether you’re the top pick or a total castoff, the opportunity is there. And while this is true in other sports, it’s as much a part of baseball as the double switch or the intentional walk. For every Buster Posey (fifth overall pick) there’s a Mike Piazza (who didn’t go until the 62nd round). And yes, for every David Price, there’s an R.A. Dickey. As the theme song to The Jeffersons assures us, there ain’t nothin’ wrong with that.

The Importance of Striking While the Iron’s Hot

The Hot Stove League (or “Hot Steve League”, as I’ve never referred to it until just now) is in full swing. In many ways, the winter is more exciting than a lot of the actual season- we get a glimpse into where teams may be headed, and this can cause great confidence or crippling fear.   Sometimes even the most proactive teams end up, to put it clinically, shitting the bed. Prior to the 1992 season, the New York Mets, in an effort to regain the mojo that they boasted in the mid to late 80s, went on something of a spending spree. That winter, the Amazins (coming off their first losing season since 1983) signed the biggest free agent fish (Bobby Bonilla), traded for two time AL Cy Young Award winner Bret Saberhagen, and inked former AL Manager of the Year Jeff Torborg to a four year contract. Unfortunately, Bonilla proved to be clearly inferior to his former Pittsburgh teammate Barry Bonds, Saberhagen was inconsistent, and Torborg was jettisoned early the following season.   More recently, the newly christened Miami Marlins went on their own little spree, signing Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle, while signing volatile manager (and Fidel Castro enthusiast) Ozzie Guillen to lead the team. It didn’t take long for the situation to disintegrate- franchise cornerstone Hanley Ramirez (like Reyes, a shortstop) was traded by mid-season, Bell was a disaster as the closer, and Guillen was fired following a last place finish.   All that said, any team is (in theory anyway) far better off spending money than not- as long as you’re smart about it. With that in mind, if my Seattle Mariners are gonna break the bank on a big free agent hitter or two, now is the time. Not next season, not once they post a winning record- right now. Why now? Because free agent hitters will never be more eager to join a losing team in southeast Alaska as they are right this moment.   As you may have heard, the fences are coming in at Safeco Field. And while this development will probably lead to more home runs, and more offense in general, the spike will probably be more understated that many of us would like.   Just last year, the Mets brought in the fences at Citi Field, and the results weren’t exactly staggering. In 2011, before the adjustments, the Mets hit .262 at home, with 50 home runs and 328 runs scored. In 2012, though they hit 17 more homers, the team batting average was 20 points lower, and they scored 41 fewer runs. (This can be partially explained by the free agency loss of 2011 batting champion Reyes.)    In short, while a one season sample size is incredibly small, the jump in offense for the Mets was at least a little more understated than most of us probably guessed. It might not be a bad idea for the Mariners to make the same assumption. And they probably stand a better chance of luring of top flight bat before said bat has a chance to see the results for himself.   In truth, I’m not really a huge proponent of big ticket free agent signings. More often than not, we’re talking about players that, however impressive their credentials may be, are 31 or 32 years old, which is right around when most guys begin to decline. What you usually end up paying for is past performance, and that’s hardly a sound investment, unless your clubhouse contains a time machine instead of a Whirlpool.   This winter’s class is led by Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton and, to a lesser extent, Yankees OF/1B Nick Swisher. Both have been, in a very casual sense, linked to the Mariners. Both, in my view, would be less than wise investments, considering the years and dollars they seem poised to command.    Nevertheless, the Mariners need hitters, and these fellows fit the bill. What I really mean to say is, if the M’s are going to spend big, it might, in a strange way, be more cost-effective to do it now. If my suspicions are proven to be valid, and the M’s offense is only modestly boosted by the friendlier dimensions, they may immediately find themselves in their familiar (and unenviable) position: having to overpay, because nobody wants to hit here 81 times a year.    In essence, I’d rather pay an outrageous sum of money for Swisher or Hamilton that’s at least fair market value, than overpay for somebody else a year or two down the line. Hitters are (and this isn’t unreasonable) far more inclined to play somewhere in which they can pad their stats than they are in a cavernous park like Safeco has been. It’s hard enough to get guys to come to Seattle as it is, but that we made the quest that much harder with the unforgiving dimensions was not exactly good business.   Of course, it’s entirely possible that the new layout (coupled with improvements from the core of young hitters already under contract), will lead to a bigger bump in runs and long balls than I anticipate. And if that does indeed happen, luring free agent hitters won’t be the nightmare it’s been for the past decade. I’m just not willing to roll the dice, because….well, because I don’t think I’m wrong- I do believe the spike in offense will be modest next year.   As is often the case, I believe that the results our imaginations produce will be bigger and better than what reality shows us. And it’s for this reason that, if I were the Mariners, I’d offer those big contracts now rather than later.

The Yankees and the Democratic Party

Even a casual baseball fan is bound to be aware of the following, well, fact: the New York Yankees are the most successful franchise in the history of Major League Baseball. This is a team that has won 27 World Series titles (well over twice the number of championships by the next closest team),  and 40 American League pennants. Starting with the season that ended during my senior year in high school, they have made the playoffs in all but one instance. And they were pretty damn good long before I went to high school- the Yankees were the most dominant team in the game from the early 1920s to the early ’60s. What I’m about to discuss is something that first occurred to me while I was watching the Yankees celebrate their most recent title back in 2009: they never seem to win when there’s a Republican in the White House. The word “seem” in the previous paragraph is significant, because the Yanks have indeed won a handful of championships while there was a Republican president- it just doesn’t happen nearly as often. Furthermore, it’s been well over half a century since it’s happened at all. Check it out…… Yankee Titles and the President at that Time 1923, 1927 and 1928: Calvin Coolidge- Republican 1932: Herbert Hoover- Republican 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941 and 1943: Franklin Roosevelt- Democrat 1947, 1949, 1950, 1951 and 1952: Harry Truman- Democrat 1953, 1956 and 1958: Dwight Eisenhower- Republican 1961 and 1962: John F. Kennedy- Democrat 1977 and 1978: Jimmy Carter- Democrat 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000: Bill Clinton- Democrat 2009: Barack Obama- Democrat To recap, that’s 20 championships under Democrats, and just 7 under Republicans. Now, as with any statistics, what I just told you might be a little misleading, so….. Reasons This Disparity Makes Perfect Sense 1. The Yanks’ longest stretch of dominance just so happened the coincide with the Democratic party’s most dominant run (in particular, an era of dominance by Roosevelt, who was elected four times, served for a little over 12 years, and would probably still be president if he were still alive).  2. It’s harder to draw any real conclusions due to the changes in the playoff format. When the Yankees won their first 20 titles, the league champion automatically advanced to the World Series- no divisions, no wildcards. As such, it’s highly probable that, had they faced off against an American League foe in a Championship Series, they would have failed to advance to the World Series in certain years. Meanwhile, there would probably have been other years in which they missed the playoffs, but came in second and might have knocked off the league champion.  So basically, different rules yield different results. Maybe in a playoff format more like the one currently utilized, the Yanks knock off the 1954 Indians, and win another ring during Ike’s Administration. On the other side of the coin, in an old-school playoff format, the 2000 Yankees finish second to those same Indians and never have a chance to win that title under Clinton. To make a long story short, it’s all incredibly subjective. Reasons This is Spooky Enough to Make You Disregard More Rational Explanations 1. If Democrats had controlled the White House considerably more often than Republicans, the whole Yankee title-Democrat president thing would make a ton of sense. But that’s not the case. In the 89 years that have passed since the Yanks won their first title, we’ve had a Democrat in office for 43 of them. Meanwhile, Republicans have occupied the office for 46. Not a whole lot of difference, but the numbers are tilted ever so slightly towards the GOP. Because if this, one would expect that the Yankees would have a title or two more under Republican administrations. Or at least that it would be reasonably close. But it isn’t. Under Democrats, the Yankees win a championship close to 47% of the time. Under Republicans, that figure shrinks to about eight percent, meaning that, historically speaking, the Yankees are nearly six times more likely to win a championship if the president is a Democrat. That’s just fucking weird. The weirdest example of this split: the Yanks won it all in 2000, just months before Clinton left office. Over the next eight years, Bush was president, and while the Yanks were highly competitive, they never won a championship. However, the very first opportunity they had to win a title post-Bush, they did just that- winning the 2009 crown during Obama’s first year in office. 2. There has never been a time when the Yankees were incapable of fielding a good team. Certain teams go through stretches where it’s virtually impossible for them to remain competitive, usually for financial reasons. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates, once a model franchise with an armful of championships in their past. For the better part of the last two decades, the Bucs’ inability to spend more than a meager sum on payroll has rendered them irrelevant. So you can forgive them for not winning a title during the Clinton or Bush Administrations. The Yanks, however, have almost always been healthy financially (even in the CBS ownership years, they weren’t exactly paupers). Based solely on resources, their chances of winning the World Series should be no different from year to year, decade to decade. When I was a kid, the Yankees were loaded with highly paid, superstar players- Rickey Henderson, Don Mattingly and Dave Winfield made up the core. Yet those Yankees never even mad it to the playoffs, much less won a World Series. Obviously, this is just a big statistical anomaly, and has nothing to do with magic, curses or whether or not you support gay marriage. But if you haven’t decided who to vote for next week, and you’re starved for another Yankee championship. you might want to consider re-electing the President. I’m just sayin’…..