The One Where Steven Tries to Stay Positive

If you’ve glanced my panic-stricken articles from last week, you know that I don’t exactly have high fucking hopes for my Seattle Mariners baseball club. 

The bats have heated up a bit, but the pitching remains atrocious. In fact, and this is far from shocking, the poor starting pitching has started to give way to shitty relief pitching. That’ll happen when your starter can’t make it out of the 3rd fucking inning. In the past three games, the ‘pen has pitched more than the starters have- 13.2 innings versus 13.1. That’s gonna take it’s toll, so it’s entirely understandable that the bullpen has been scorched in the past two contests.

Unless the starters learn to locate a fucking fastball right quick, this season could spiral out of control before Anzac Day (which is April 25…Christ, people, learn your fucking Australian history, will you?).

Still, I gotta take a stab at this being positive business. In that spirit, I shall highlight a few players that have been rays of sunshine in this otherwise disturbing opening volley of games.

 

Felix Abraham (Garcia) Hernandez 

– No shocker here. The King is the best right-handed pitcher in the game today. The M’s have won a paltry five games so far this season….you wanna guess who was pitching in three of those games?

Although in this early stage of the season, Felix only leads the league in winning percentage and hit batters, he’s been tremendous. His second start, marred by a sore quad, wasn’t great, but it was still better than anything Hisashi Iwakuma or James Paxton has given us. Even with that little hiccup, Hernandez is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.895 WHIP and 23 punchouts in 19 innings pitched. (He’d be 3-0 had our closer not blown a fucking four run lead a while back, but….OK, OK…positive….)

Still just 29 (but in his eleventh year of big league play), Felix’s lifetime numbers are already looking pretty damn impressive. Among active MLB pitchers, he ranks seventh in wins (despite worse fucking run support than damn near anyone who has ever thrown a baseball in the last 150 years), third in ERA, sixth in WHIP and sixth in strikeouts.

As impressive as those little nuggets are, this one tops them all: he’s fourth among active pitchers in Wins Above Replacement. Of the three gentlemen currently ahead of him, each is at least five years older and has logged a minimum of four addition years of MLB service. This sounds insane, but if he can put up another couple of seasons of Felix-like production, we can probably start thinking about his eventual Hall of Fame induction.

The King has been the one steadying presence in our darkest times as M’s’ fans. We can’t imagine a team without him, and we hope we won’t have to for many years.

 

Nelson Cruz

– In 2014, Mariners’ designated hitters combined for an OPS of .567. That’s even horrible for a second baseman. In fact, Zack Greinke of the Dodgers and the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner both had higher OPS’ last season. In the event that you’re something of a baseball novice, there’s something you should know about those two dudes: They’re fucking pitchers.

To make a long story short, damn near anyone would have provided more punch for the M’s in the DH role this season. Which is why I wasn’t really among the naysayers when the team signed Cruz. In no way did I ever expect him to match the 40 home runs he clubbed for Baltimore last year, but to be an upgrade over the likes of Kendrys Morales and Corey Hart, he didn’t need to.

I came into the season thinking that if Cruz could hit 20 homers and drive in 80, that would be a huge help. Well, through the season’s first 14 games, Cruz has already left the yard eight times. So if he can manage another dozen long-balls in the next five months, I think we’re good.

While the power will likely remain, what won’t is the batting average- Cruz is hitting .333 thus far, and, as he’s a 34-year-old with a .269 career mark, that shit ain’t gonna last. But again, that isn’t necessary- he’s replacing a parade of wholly incompetent DH’s after all. Things could get ugly in a hurry, but for now, Mr. Boom Stick has been the only real pleasant surprise in the lineup.

 

Carson Smith

– He’s logged a mere 16 big league innings in his career, but Smith has future closer written all over him. In fact, if this season continues on its current trajectory, the “future” might be this August when Fernando Rodney is dealt to a contender.

The sample size is admittedly tiny, but Smith has been stellar out of the ‘pen, allowing just three hits- one for extra bases- in eight innings, while recording ten strikeouts. He’s probably the only guy in Seattle’s relief corps that doesn’t make me nervous.

He’ll inevitably have his ups and downs, but in Smith, it seems the M’s have, yet again, unearthed one bad-ass reliever. It’s the one thing the Mariners are good at….you know, besides failure….sorry.

 

In Conclusion: 

Okay, yeah…things look bleak…they look so fucking bleak. But even in the shittiest of shit-storms, there are bound to be a smattering of sweet-smelling flowers that…..ah, forget it. Let’s be honest here- the minute the pitching straightens itself out, the bats are gonna go to sleep. The day that Kuma hurls seven scoreless frames is the same day that Paxton exits with shoulder discomfort that results in four months on the DL. It’s over, people! A division title? A fucking AL pennant? These were pipe dreams and we’re being violently jostled awake. WE’RE DOOMED! DOOOOOOOMED!!!!!

Um…go M’s?

 

Have a Little Faith? Nah, I’m Good

I bitched and moaned a few days ago when the Seattle Mariners were a mere 3-5. Now, matters are worse.

Please try not to misunderstand: I’m not here to cry that the sky is falling. But I am here to point out the we appear headed in that direction. Early results are early results, but falling too far behind too quickly can ruin everything.

Now I know that what some would refer to as a “true fan”, I am not. These self-proclaimed true fans believe in their team, no matter what reality tells them. They’re kind of the evangelical Christians of baseball fandom. Funny how those who engage in the kind of self-congratulatory behavior that allows them to refer to themselves as “true” fans have such an aversion to the truth, isn’t it?

Now, here’s the truth: The M’s are in trouble. Not trouble of the “no chance in hell of righting the ship” variety, but trouble nonetheless. For starters, there are several supermassive black holes that have taken up residence in the lineup, in the persons of Austin Jackson, Mike Zunino, Logan Morrison and Robinson Cano. Now I’m pretty sure Morrison and Zunino will step it up a bit, and all but certain that Cano will. But Jackson? I have zero faith that he can be the player he was in Detroit.

In 277 plate appearances since his acquisition at last year’s trade deadline, Jackson has accumulated a nauseating seven extra-base hits. He has yet to hit a home run in a Mariners’ uniform. That would be fine if he didn’t also have the plate discipline of Reggie Jackson, but….yeah. Before arriving in Seattle, Jackson was worth at least 3.5 Wins Above Replacement per season; since then, he’s sitting at 0.2 WAR- and that’s only because of his defense; his oWAR number as a Mariner is -0.4. He’s more or less the guy he replaced- James Jones– only with a better glove and significantly less speed. Barring a truly torrid stretch, there’s no chance in hell he’s on the roster next year…in fact, if the M’s continue on their current shitty trajectory, he’s a shoo-in to be dealt by July.

But this isn’t just about one under-performing player; Seattle’s dysfunction runs deep. Zunino is batting .121 and is (even for him) striking out at an alarming rate. The catcher spot in general is an offensive wasteland- backup Jesus Sucre is, believe it or not, an even worse offensive option than Zunino.

But what am I doing? Where’s the optimism? Hell, by my own admission, Cano’s bat is gonna heat up sooner or later, and when that happens, we’re good, right? Um, probably not. Because odds are that by the time that happens, Nelson Cruz will have cooled off, so we’ll be trading one slumping middle of the order bat for another. Maybe I’m wrong, but I can’t shake this feeling that Cruz isn’t gonna keep going 12-23 with six homers during every six game stretch the rest of the way. I have nothing to back that sentiment up…other than a hundred and fifty fucking years of baseball-related evidence, that is.

The pitching is another story altogether, and frankly, my psyche can’t handle discussing it at length right this moment.

My point is that every silver lining a faithful fan can throw at me can be countered with, depending on how you wish to frame it, pessimism or reality of equal potency. The pitching will improve, but there will still be far too many games where the offense does practically nothing. Some combination of the three poorly performing starting pitchers will step up, but JA Happ‘s performance will inevitably take a dip. The slumping hitters will start to hit, but Dustin Ackley‘s gonna fall into one of his two month long droughts at some point as well.

So where’s the faith? I don’t know….um….not here? You know which local team I have faith in? Your Seattle Seahawks of course. And it’s easy to pinpoint why that is: They’ve fucking earned it. Led by Pete Carroll and John Schneider, the Hawks have a proven track record of drafting and developing talent. They win, and then they win some more. They also have an invested, dedicated owner, and a roster full of guys who love the fuck out of one another. They’re the real deal. The only thing the Mariners have ever proven is that even when their roster boasts a handful of Hall of Fame-caliber players, they can’t get past the fucking LCS. And those were the fucking good old days! Their GM, Jack Zduriencik, is the anti-Schneider; the victim of one lopsided trade after another, a guy who, by some accounts, essentially hustled and conned his way into the job. And their ownership…..fuck, I just can’t.

Having said all that, obviously hope remains. Nobody in the AL West has really distinguished themselves up to this point, and there are about a million games left in the season. But soon, oh, very soon, somebody’s gonna get hot. And when that happens, this minuscule two game deficit will grow in a hurry, unless the M’s can get their shit together soon. It might happen, but to expect it to requires an abandonment of reality that I’m simply not willing to make.

Believe big? Fucking make me.

 

I’ve Got a Bad Feeling About This

It has to get better. Right?

 

Following Fernando Rodney‘s second implosion in three days, your Seattle Mariners now sit at 3-5 on the season. They could just as easily be 5-3. Or, for that matter, 1-7. Depends on how you look at it.

The M’s currently, um, boast the second worst pitching staff and fifth worst hitting corps in baseball. On some level, both of these situations will improve; even if they remain one of the lousiest hitting teams in the game, they’re not gonna hit .207 all season. And the pitching….well, that’s gotta improve tremendously, don’t you think? Yeah well….about that……

While I agree that the Mariners’ pitching staff will eventually move ahead of the likes of the fucking Rockies, I’m not getting the impression it will be the dominant force it was last season. Former All Star Hisashi Iwakuma hasn’t looked good since last August, and young hurler James Paxton has looked alarmingly suspect as well. I’ll give Taijuan Walker a pass for his abomination of a start last week, but I can’t shake the feeling that his struggles will continue. Oh, did I mention that Felix Hernandez has been struggling with a sore quad for weeks now? And we haven’t even mentioned JA Happ yet. Fuck.

But what about the bullpen? You know, the best one in the game just a year ago? Well, if any of you wanna wager that they’ll be the best again this year, I will happily take your money. And it all starts with the closer.

Even while leading the league with 48 saves last season, the Rodney 9th inning ride was often terrifying. Baseball-reference tells me he walked 28 batters in 2014, but I’m pretty sure it was closer to six thousand. Regardless, his two most recent outings have been disasters. He managed to blow a four run lead on Sunday afternoon, and for an encore, pissed away a lead once more last night.

These things are to be expected, but this feels different. Rodney is 38 years old, and even a reliever ten years younger can suddenly crumble. Because the overwhelming majority of relievers rely on two, maybe three pitches, their issues become magnified. If Felix’s changeup isn’t working for him, he can lean on his other pitches to get him through an outing. If Rodney’s isn’t working, he’s basically damned to pipe fucking fastballs all night….if he can find the strike zone that is. That generally doesn’t work out so well. I can only hope that, should Rodney’s struggles continue, management will have the balls to pull him from his closer duties, if only temporarily.

Ah but if only our arrow-shooting stopper were the only problem here. As I mentioned earlier, the starters haven’t exactly been intimidating thus far. I have reason to believe that, health permitting, Walker and Paxton will be at least marginally effective for the most part, but I’m increasingly convinced that Kuma is washed up.

Even at his best, the 34-year-old Japanese hurler ain’t the kind of guy you want throwing too many pitches. A decent analogy is that he’s a poor man’s later period Pedro Martinez. If you get five or six good innings from him, you thank god for it and move the fuck on, no matter how gassed your bullpen might be. But Lloyd McClendon just couldn’t help himself last night- he brought Kuma out for the sixth when he was already at 90 pitches and, surprise, surprise, he surrendered a leadoff homer that shrunk the lead to one run.

(Yes, the M’s had played extra inning games three nights in a row, but let’s not be dramatic here- two of those went ten innings, the other went eleven. That’s four extra innings of work, or, you know, five less than the Yanks and Sox endured in one night last week. This should not be a bullpen killer, and if it is, you should really think about carrying a long man to eat some of those innings.) 

If the M’s need Kuma to pitch at close to his previous form in order to make a legitimate playoff push, then I think we’re fucked.

We haven’t discussed my myriad problems with Seattle’s offense, so let’s just quickly hit on a few things there…..

– Catcher Mike Zunino looks worse than ever at the plate, which is truly saying something considering he hit .199 last year. In this admittedly young season, he’s batting a not exactly robust .115, with three hits- all singles- and 13 strikeouts in 26 at bats. Yes, he’s young, he’s got pop and he’s a tremendous defensive catcher, but holy fuck, every time he comes to the dish, he’s a strikeout waiting to happen.

– Let’s not kid ourselves: Austin Jackson is not a leadoff hitter. In fact, he shouldn’t be anywhere near the top of the order. If you can stash him in the seventh spot of your lineup, enjoy his excellent defense and live with his strikeouts, lack of pop and poor base-running, okay, that makes some sense. But for whatever reason, dude just can’t get comfortable in a Mariners’ uniform. In 54 games for the M’s last year, he compiled a .229/.267/.266 slash line, the worst output of his career by a fucking country mile. He seems to have picked up right where he left off- in his first eight games, he’s at .226/.273/.258.

He’s still only 28, so I don’t think he’s finished, but I don’t believe he’ll never be what the Mariners want him to be. I have every reason to believe he’ll resurrect his career once he’s either traded this July or allowed to walk in free agency. But that doesn’t much help us, now does it? It’s sickeningly appropriate that Jackson cost the M’s practically nothing (infielder Nick Franklin, who was clearly no longer in the team’s plans), because that’s exactly what he’s given them.

One last thing: Given that we’re merely one twentieth of the way through the season, someone could be justified in calling me an alarmist. You may even ask yourself, Where’s the faith? Well, that’s easy- there isn’t any. Because this club hasn’t earned it. (I have a lot more to say on why that’s the case, but it’ll have to wait for another time.)

Look, it’s absolutely possible that Walker will pitch a gem tonight, the bats will wake up and the M’s will go on a nice little run. But it’s equally possible that nerves from pitching so close to home will rattle him, and he’ll get shelled again. And even if he doesn’t, how good do you feel about Rodney taking the ball in the ninth? I’d hold up on purchasing those playoff tickets if I were you. This could get ugly.

 

The Mariners and the Crippling Anxiety of Relevance

Every April for at least the past four years, one thing seemed certain: the Mariners were terrible.

 

Oh, to be sure, there was a false sense of hope with the acquisition of Cliff Lee prior to the 2010 season, but by that May, it was apparent that the M’s were as bad as ever.

(That team, as I’ve pointed out previously, was probably the second worst team I’ve ever regularly watched, the absolute worst being the truly putrid 1993 Mets. Nevertheless, like a spectator in Kafka’s A Hunger Artist, I subjected myself to the gruesome sights of that 2010 club every goddamn day. I couldn’t help myself.)

As difficult as the M’s have been to follow in the last decade-plus, there was a certain sense of comfort that came with knowing they were gonna suck. Surely there’d be those infuriating nights when Felix would pitch his ass off and leave with a loss or a no-decision; the nightly fear that they wouldn’t muster so much as one goddamn hit, but that lack of expectations, more often than not, brought a sick analog for serenity along with it. For this year anyway, that no longer exists.

The 2015 Mariners appear to be legit. They’re more than a trendy pick to win the rugged American League West; they’re actually many experts’ picks to win the AL pennant, or even to, as Jake Taylor once said, “win the whole fuckin’ thing.” And that’s terrifying.

Please don’t misunderstand- I’m thrilled that my favorite team has a real chance to play deep into October. The M’s somewhat famously haven’t reached the postseason since that exhilarating/humiliating 2001 season, and for an upper mid-market club (hell, for any club), that’s embarrassing. It’s just that the entire experience becomes a more emotional one when your team is supposed to be good.

Confidence in this year’s version of the Mariners isn’t the least bit ill-informed. The 2014 club won 87 games, and weren’t eliminated from playoff contention until the fifth inning of the final game of the year. They addressed their colossal deficiency at the DH spot with the acquisition of 2014 home run champ Nelson Cruz, acquired an excellent platoon outfielder in Seth Smith, and added a quality back of the rotation option by trading for JA Happ. By merging these players with an already strong nucleus led by All Stars Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, Fernando Rodney and Kyle Seager, the M’s have as good a chance as anybody in the AL to get the job done.

But what I just said- as good a chance as anybody- is the primary factor is my apprehension concerning the M’s. I can’t ever recall a time in which so many AL teams have a real chance of advancing to the postseason. The MLB playoffs are a crap-shoot to begin with- keep in mind the wildcard Giants and Royals played for the crown last October, while the loaded Angels and Dodgers failed to make it past the Division Series.

But what’s really interesting is that there could be as many as nine or ten AL teams that are capable of not just making a bit of noise, but of going far in the playoffs. I don’t love the chances of the Twins, Rangers, Astros or Rays. But beyond that quartet, I could see anyone at all winning their division. So no matter how good the M’s look on paper, two thirds of the league doesn’t look so bad either.

The Yankees’ lineup looks like garbage to me, but their pitching is solid, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that dinosaurs like A-Rod and Teixeira could put together decent seasons. The Red Sox have the opposite problem- great lineup, highly suspect pitching- but in such a winnable division, so what? The Angels won 98 games last year, the A’s can never be counted out, and the White Sox, Jays and Indians all look better today than they did a year ago. And I haven’t even mentioned the defending league champs.

Having said all that, seeing the M’s, on paper anyway, return to relevance is fun as hell. When Cano was signed last winter, it felt like nothing more than a glamour purchase- a shot in the arm for an otherwise insignificant franchise. But he’s brought not just leadership and production to the Emerald City; he brought an expectation that this team, yes, the fucking Seattle Mariners, could win, and win big.

(Much has been made of Cano’s alleged lack of hustle and leadership, and while I’m not gonna say those that watched him play every day for nine years are wrong, I will say that I have yet to see either of those things here. Besides, how much of a leader can you really be when your double play partner is Derek fucking Jeter?)

So all those nerves that come along with the expectations of success? Fuck ’em. If the past eleven years watching the M’s has taught me anything, it’s that winning isn’t a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination. And even if this club yet again falls a little bit short, it’ll still be quite a bit of fun to tune in and see what they have do offer.

Sooooo yeah. Let’s fucking do this.